According to Woofun AI, in the macro context where both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index hit record highs, Bitcoin failed to benefit from improved inflation data. Instead, after failing to break through $65,000, the transaction price slipped below $63,000, showing a significant divergence in asset performance.
Technical analysis revealed a severe resistance structure. On Friday August 14, 2026, Bitcoin dropped 1.3% during the day, closing at around $62,570, hitting this month's low. Rekt Capital notes that the $63,000 support has failed, and the current 50-month simple moving average is at $65,827, posing heavy pressure. The agency warned that if the weekly closing price fails to stay above $63,220, the risk of liquidation will rise sharply.
This trend is highly similar to the pattern where Bitcoin was repeatedly blocked around $65,000 during the 2022 bear market, which was relatively weak against the stock market. Despite bearish market sentiment, analyst Daan adheres to the long-term bullish logic, setting a target price of $200,000 and continuing to increase spot holdings; while Ted designated $62,000 to $62,500 as a key support area. If it falls, selling pressure may push the price down to $61,000.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the current market is crowded with bulls, further exacerbating downside risks.
The regulatory fog and institutional sell-off posed another blow. The US Securities and Exchange Commission delayed the innovation exemption policy involving tokenized securities, due to concerns between Washington and Wall Street and the cancellation of the scheduled Friday meeting. Meanwhile, congressional negotiations on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act have stalled, and banking industry groups and consumer rights protection organizations are opposed to some provisions of the bill. Shrouded in policy uncertainty, Strategy (MSTR.US) sold 1,690 bitcoins this week and cashed out about $108.6 million. This large-scale holdings reduction directly increased market selling pressure during the period of weak prices and heightened investors' fears.
The fragility of the derivatives market is awaiting verification from macro-data. The Glassnode report notes that large numbers of long positions have accumulated liquidation risks around $61,000. According to QCP Capital's analysis, the market's reaction to recent low inflation data has been lackluster, and the focus of the transaction has shifted to PCE (personal consumption expenditure) data released on August 26.
From a structural point of view, if Bitcoin wants to reverse its decline, it must re-stabilize at $63,220 to repair its technical form. Only by strongly breaking through the $65,000 resistance level can it re-stimulate upward momentum; otherwise, the downward trend may be difficult to reverse.