The Zhitong Finance App learned that as demand for electricity continues to rise in hot weather, the country's electricity consumption load has peaked several times. At the same time, the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry” clearly states that coal consumption will peak, and supply will be concentrated in the five major bases. The trend of structural optimization is obvious, and coal prices form strong support at high levels. Fangzheng Securities pointed out that coking coal prices are resilient, and high-quality major coking coal companies benefit from continuing high prices under rigid supply.
According to the data, the country's temperature continued to rise this month. On August 7, the country's electricity consumption reached 1,557 billion kilowatts, reaching a new high for the fourth time this year, 49 million kilowatts higher than last year's peak. Hot weather is the main driver. The China Telecommunication Union predicts a median national maximum load of 1.6 billion kilowatts in 2026, an increase of about 6.1% over the previous year.
Terminal coal consumption remains seasonally high in hot weather. The daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces is increasing year-on-year, and demand for electricity and coal is still supported. The price of thermal coal continued to rise this week. The Q5500 liquidation price in Qingang rose 1.3% to 860 yuan/ton from week to week. The price of coal in Kengkou rose simultaneously, and the sharp rise in volume and price continued.
The impact on demand also gradually spread to imported coal, leading to a simultaneous rise in prices. Previously, from August 10 to 16, the price of main coking coal imported from Russia, Canada, and Australia at Jingtang Port had risen 60-70 yuan/ton from week to week, up 130-330 yuan/ton; the price of raw coking coal and coke refined coal in Mongolia at Ganqimaodu Port rose 100-175 yuan/ton from week to week, up 255-295 yuan/ton from the previous year.
In the short term, hot weather continues across the country in mid-late August, the daily consumption of downstream power plants is expected to remain high, and inventories in all parts of the industrial chain will be further digested. After September, seasonal demand declined, but demand for stock replenishment is expected to gradually start, supporting the high operation of coal prices.
The supply side also ushered in structural benefits. The “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry” was released, and it is proposed that by 2030, the proportion of high-quality advanced production capacity and the proportion of intelligent coal mines will further increase, coal consumption will peak, and medium- to long-term supply constraints and the direction of high-quality development will be strengthened.
The “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry” was released recently. Debon Securities pointed out that the “Plan” further enhances the strategic position of coal in energy security and supply, promotes large-scale and advanced construction of coal mines empowered by artificial intelligence, which is expected to stabilize the supply pattern of the industry, weaken cycle fluctuations, and further enhance the steady dividend capacity of enterprises.
At the same time, national production safety supervision is still under high pressure, coal mine safety inspections are still at a high level of intensity, and the shutdown of production at the end of the month continues to restrict production. Production stopped in Shanxi last week at a scale of 55.9 million tons. In addition, parts of major production areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are also in the centralized remediation phase, and capacity utilization rates remain low.
Daily coastal consumption is high due to tight supply combined with high temperatures. Inventories in various sectors continue to fall, inventories at Bohai Rim ports and coastal power plants continue to be depleted, and the rapid decline in inventories has also become an important factor driving up coal prices in this round. The coal market continues to operate tightly.
Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the focus of coal is shifting to supply quality and building supply resilience. The demand side sets the tone for coal consumption to peak, high platforms soft landing, refusing cliff-style coal cuts, and the demand chassis is resilient. In the medium to long term, it is beneficial for the coal price center to maintain a reasonable range, and the profits of coal companies will rise definitively.
Zheshang Securities pointed out that based on current sector capital and fundamentals, it is optimistic about the coal valuation repair market in the medium to long term. After the pessimistic chips in the early stages were fully cleared, the three core concerns of overcapacity, high carbon impairment, and safety accidents were all hedged by policies. There is limited room for the sector to decline, and there is a foundation for a continuous upward trend under multiple catalysts.
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