Alfen’s stock went into these results under pressure, down about 21% over the past three months and roughly flat in the last week. Yet the headline from H1 is not collapse; it is a margin and balance sheet reset that looks cleaner than the share price suggests.
Revenue reached €261.5m and adjusted EBITDA margin sat at 6.3%. The real swing factor is cash. The company moved from net debt at year end 2025 to a net cash position of €6.2m, with operating cash flow of €36.5m. The market is trading the fear. The numbers tell a more nuanced story.
Is Alfen’s low 0.6x P/S a genuine mispricing or a warning sign, given that a DCF estimate of €1.08 sits far below the €12.63 share price? Compare both sides in the valuation analysis for Alfen.
H1 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): €261.5m vs. €211.5m (up about 24%)
- Net Income (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): loss of €0.5m vs. loss of €1.3m (loss narrowed)
- Basic EPS (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): loss of €0.02 per share vs. loss of €0.06 per share (per share loss narrowed)
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): 6.3% vs. prior year H1 level not disclosed (H1 2026 is now clearly within the reiterated full year margin range of 4% to 7%)
Prefer clear charts over a wall of earnings tables and raw figures on Alfen? View a full visual summary of how the stock’s valuation compares with its recent results in the company report for Alfen.
Alfen bull case hinges on execution milestones
The bullish story on Alfen is about a cleaner balance sheet and operating platform that can support healthier growth once demand normalizes. H1 gives some support. Revenue of €261.5m and adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.3% sit within the reiterated full year margin range of 4% to 7%. That keeps the margin recovery roadmap intact rather than ahead of plan. The move from net debt of €20.7m at year end 2025 to net cash of €6.2m, helped by €36.5m operating cash flow and a €19.7m inventory reduction, shows the working capital clean up is progressing. Energy Storage Systems and Smart Grid Solutions are contributing within target margin ranges, which backs the idea that the mix can support sustainable profitability if volumes hold. The bull case on EV charging product renewal is still mostly a 2027 story.
Alfen bear case tests margins and demand risks
The bear view is that Alfen faces structurally weaker demand, margin pressure and execution risk that a single tidy half cannot fix. H1 gives bears some support on earnings quality. Adjusted gross margin declined to 26.1% from 29.1% as the mix tilted to Energy Storage Systems. That confirms the risk that growth leans on lower margin categories. EV Charging revenue of €51.1m fell 17% and unit deliveries fell 12.3%, with management guiding to a softer H2 and only expecting full product refresh benefits from 2027. Personnel expenses of €40.1m rose 6.1% and are guided higher again in H2 due to transformation overlap, so fixed cost relief is not yet visible. Management also expects H2 EBITDA to be weaker than H1. That feeds the concern that the margin reset is fragile and still heavily reliant on execution going to plan.
Access the analyst models behind Alfen’s seemingly settled €12.63 share price, where the surface looks calm but the multi year earnings paths start to diverge, through the analyst estimates for Alfen.
Stay Ahead Of Your Next Move
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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