Trifork Group AG (CPH:TRIFOR) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.8% to kr.106 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.01, some 90% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €58m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Trifork Group's four analysts is for revenues of €236.5m in 2026. This would reflect an okay 6.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €0.66, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €236.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.77 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Trifork Group
Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 6.3% to kr.126, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Trifork Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr.145 and the most bearish at kr.100.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Trifork Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Trifork Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Trifork Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Trifork Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Trifork Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Trifork Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.