The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the future progress of the new tobacco layout of leading international tobacco companies has become a core variable in determining medium- to long-term growth differences. The pace of smoke-free transformation of tobacco giants is divided, PMI is leading, and BAT and JT are catching up faster. The global tobacco industry is nearly trillion US dollars. Overseas leaders continue to transition to new types of tobacco. China's HNB market is expected to gradually liberalize, focusing on companies whose performance benefits from the development of the global new tobacco industry chain.
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Global tobacco: traditional tobacco supplements price, new tobacco reshapes industry growth
Global tobacco sales reached US$952.9 billion in 2025, +3.6% year over year. Traditional tobacco sales entered a downward channel, with leading price increases and structural upgrades maintaining revenue; sales of new tobacco reached US$90.4 billion, +14.4% over the same period last year. Among them, sales of HNB/atomized e-cigarettes and nicotine bags were US$43/244/92 billion, respectively, compared with +9.1%/+4.0%/+42.4%. HNB is the main smokeless category, and nicotine bags are growing the fastest. The progress of the new tobacco layout of leading international tobacco companies in the future has become a core variable in determining medium- to long-term growth differences.
The pace of smoke-free transformation of tobacco giants is divided, PMI is leading, and BAT and JT are catching up faster
Fimo International: IQOS+ZYN two-wheel drive, smoke-free business unleashes profits. The company's new tobacco transformation was driven by the HNB brand IQOS and the nicotine bag brand ZYN. In 2025, the company's smoke-free product revenue was US$16.9 billion, accounting for 41.6% of total revenue, and the CAGR reached 20% in 2020-2025; the gross margin of the smoke-free business was 69.2%, higher than 65.5% of combustible tobacco. The company expects revenue CAGR of 6%-8% and EPS growth of 9%-11% in 2026-2028.
British and American Tobacco: Full matrix of new tobacco products, strong growth in oral tobacco use. In 2025, the company's revenue from new tobacco products was £3.6 billion, accounting for 14.1% of total revenue; e-cigarettes, heating products, and modern oral tobacco revenue was £15.42/9.14/1,165 billion pounds, respectively, -10%/-1%/+47% year-on-year. Velo in mouth tobacco has become the biggest growth engine, and HNB brand Glo is under pressure. The adjusted operating profit of the new tobacco sector in 2025 was £442 million. The adjusted operating margin increased to 12.0%, and 26H1 further increased to 13%. Hyundai's cigarette revenue in the first half of 2026 was £780 million, +65.9% year over year.
Japan Tobacco: Traditional businesses are resilient, and Ploom is catching up faster. In 2025, the company's revenue was 3467.7 billion yen, +10.1% year on year; revenue from harm reduction products was 122.5 billion yen, +23.9% year over year, and sales volume +28.4% year over year. The HNB brand Ploom is the core of the smoke-free transformation. The share of the global HTS market increased from 7.7% in 2021 to 18.1% in 2026H1, and Japan is still its core market.
Altria: Traditional businesses have leading profit margins, and modern ones include! Drive transformation. The company is deeply involved in the US market, and Marlboro, the flagship brand of traditional tobacco, reduced prices and increased volume to support traditional tobacco revenue profits. A new type of tobacco is on! Brand-driven growth. Revenue from oral tobacco products in 2025 was US$2,789 million, +0.5% year over year; total product shipments were 732.4 million cans, -5.5% year-on-year, including nicotine bags! Sales volume of 177.8 million cans, +10.9% YoY. 2026q1/q2 nicotine bag ON! Shipment volume +17.6%/-4.2% YoY, on! It is the third-largest brand in the US nicotine bag market.
Imperial brand: traditional tobacco is stable and profitable, and the smoke-free transformation needs to be broken through. FY2025's net revenue from tobacco and new tobacco was £8.32 billion, and the adjusted operating profit was £3.67 billion, with a profit margin of about 44%; of these, revenue from new tobacco was only £370 million, accounting for 4.4%, and the adjusted operating profit loss was reduced to -£79 million. The company expects new tobacco revenue to maintain double-digit growth in 2025-2030, and the Group's adjusted operating profit will increase by an average of 3%-5% per year.
Risk warning: Regulatory policies have been tightened beyond expectations, tax increases have exceeded expectations, risk of product iteration and market competition, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of litigation and compliance, risk of external demand fluctuations, etc.