According to WooFunai, Glassnode characterizes the current Bitcoin market as a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal. The core facts are anchored that key on-chain indicators have not broken through resistance levels.
According to data compiled by WooFunai, the Bitcoin transaction price is still pressured by the short-term holder cost benchmark of $68,500 and the realized market average price of $75,800, leaving most holders in a state of unrealized losses.
Although the unrealized loss ratio has fallen from a cyclical high to 25%, this figure is far below the 60% level seen during the previous major decline, indicating that although the market pressure is strong, it has not reached the level of extreme sluggishness. The more critical variable is that the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio is only 0.75, that is, every $1 of realized profit corresponds to a realized loss of $0.75, and historical experience shows that this ratio needs to be below 0.5 to mean that the seller's power is exhausted. Currently, there is no sign of a reversal.
Looking at derivatives and capital flows, demand for perpetual contract futures turned positive, indicating a return of speculative interest; after experiencing capital outflows, capital inflows to Bitcoin ETFs stabilized, revealing some signs of interest from institutional investors. However, the Coinbase (COIN.US) premium remains negative. This indicator measures the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges. Its negative value directly indicates that there has been no substantial recovery in spot demand in the US market.
This lack of spot buying forms a core bottleneck limiting the continuation of the current rebound.
True trend reversal depends on continued buying pressure, particularly from US institutional investors, and prices must break through key cost benchmarks. Until these conditions are met, the current upward trend is only a brief rebound in a wider downtrend, and the market is still fragile. Following many false breakthroughs, the market once again warns investors to avoid making decisions based solely on short-term price changes and to be wary of vulnerability until critical levels are recovered.