This phenomenon shows that Bitcoin's rapid rise in the past two days was more due to the fact that bears were forced to close their positions rather than investors establishing new bullish positions on a large scale.

LO:Tech research director Adam McCarthy said that judging from the perpetual contract market, what we are seeing now is more about unilateral short positions being forced out, rather than large inflows of new capital. “Currently, no investors are willing to pay a significant premium to go long.”

He pointed out that the large amount of bears previously accumulated in the market has basically been cleared up, so if Bitcoin wants to start the next phase of its rise, it needs to be driven by real new purchases and cannot continue to be squeezed by bears.

This also means that after mechanical buying due to forced liquidation gradually subsides, whether Bitcoin can attract new investors into the market will be the key to judging the continuation of this round of rebound.

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETF investors are still in a state of loss as a whole.

Glassnode's Sean Rose estimates that the average holding cost for US Bitcoin ETF investors is about $82,465, which is significantly higher than the current Bitcoin price. Among them, the estimated average cost of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US) investors is about $82,206, while the average cost of Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US) under Fidelity is about $73,447.

This means that even after experiencing a recent sharp rebound, quite a few ETF investors have yet to return to break-even. Unlike bears being forced to make up, ETF capital inflows require investors to actively invest in additional capital, so it is particularly important whether ETFs can re-attract continuous net inflows in the future.

Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere said that this round of growth is mainly driven by shorting, so whether the increase can be maintained will ultimately depend on the continuation of spot capital flows and ETF inflows. In the short term, if the number of open perpetual contract positions increases again, shorting conditions may be created again, but a signal that can actually confirm the continuation of the trend still needs to come from the spot market.

The power of enterprises to buy coins has yet to return significantly

Another important source of funding that once fueled Bitcoin's rise is also currently weak.

The stock prices of listed companies that hold large amounts of digital assets are still relatively sluggish, making it difficult to restart the “financing-buying” cycle formed previously. In the past, when such company shares had a high premium compared to their net crypto asset value, they could raise capital by issuing shares and then use the proceeds to buy more bitcoins.

As the stock valuation premiums of related companies have narrowed markedly, the appeal of this financing model has declined, and it has also weakened the demand for additional purchases of Bitcoin on the corporate side.

As a result, Bitcoin has now entered a more critical phase of this rebound. A large number of previously accumulated bears have been cleared, and many ETF investors are still in a state of loss, yet corporate demand to buy coins has yet to return strongly. If the currency price hopes to continue to rise in the future, it will increasingly rely on real spot to add new purchases, rather than being forced to close positions with leverage.

Options positions are concentrated around $60,000 and $70,000

Meanwhile, the options market position structure may further amplify Bitcoin's short-term fluctuations.

According to data from cryptocurrency trading platform Deribit, currently Bitcoin options open positions are mainly concentrated around the $70,000 call option and the $60,000 put option. As the price of the currency approaches these key execution prices, hedging transactions carried out by market makers to adjust risk exposure may amplify upward or downward price fluctuations.

The macro environment may also be an important factor influencing Bitcoin's trend in the next phase. After the US Treasury recently announced the expansion of long-term US Treasury bond repurchases, US bond yields and the US dollar both declined, improving the trading environment for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, and has also become one of the driving factors behind this round of Bitcoin's rebound.

Next, the market will also pay attention to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held from August 27th to 29th. This will be the first time that Walsh has attended this important meeting since becoming Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

De Maere believes that the next important point of observation, in addition to the Jackson Hole meeting, is whether spot capital can confirm the upward trend initiated by this round of shortfall.

Overall, after Bitcoin broke through $72,000, market technology and sentiment have improved markedly, but this round of rebound is moving from “forced bears to buy” to a stage where “active purchases by bulls” are required. If ETF funds and spot purchases continue to return, the rebound may further evolve into a more lasting upward trend; conversely, if additional capital is slow to pick up, Bitcoin may still face a greater risk of fluctuation after the bears' momentum to recover has subsided.