According to Woofun AI, the long-term bond repurchase program launched by the US Treasury is reshaping macro-liquidity expectations and is seen as a key turning point in easing pressure on the crypto market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly confirmed that the government will regularly carry out such operations with the aim of providing structural support for Bitcoin (BTC) to escape the suppression of high yields by interfering with the fundamentals of the bond market.
The disclosure of policy details triggered an immediate reaction from the market. Basent revealed to CNBC that the repurchase scale is expected to break through the previously announced $4 billion limit, and the core logic is to correct the deviation between bond yields and fundamentals. At the time, the 10-year US Treasury yield hovered at 4.68%, a slight increase of 3 basis points from the previous day. Although it did not hit an intraday high, it was already a significant source of pressure. As this signal of intervention was released, the Bitcoin price responded quickly, almost hitting the $73,000 mark.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, capital flows are extremely sensitive to interest rates, and Bezent's statement directly triggered valuation repairs for risky assets, indicating that the market has interpreted the Ministry of Finance's actions as a substantial hedge against rising long-term borrowing costs.
Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, deconstructed this in depth. He pointed out that the current scale of $4 billion is only the beginning, and the monthly repurchase amount is expected to expand to the $10 billion to $30 billion range as it becomes more difficult for the government to find debt buyers.
This liquidity injection changed BTC's cyclical expectations: Connors is no longer convinced that the price will continue to be sluggish until November, but instead believes that if it complements the relaxation of leverage ratios to allow banks to increase their holdings of treasury bonds, BTC will move directly towards $180,000. He predicted the long-term price range of $180,000 to $360,000 until 2030, and emphasized that by supporting debt prices and reducing yields, repurchase operations fundamentally eliminate the macro-resistance that crowds out capital from risky assets.
Short-term trends depend on a game between technical aspects and legislative risks. $72,000 became a key long and short watershed, and Jim Ferraioli, head of cryptocurrency research at Schw.US (SCHW.US), pointed out that a large number of leveraged short positions are concentrated here. If BTC remains above this level, buying pressure caused by short positions will accelerate; conversely, it faces liquidation.
The more critical variable is the legislative process for the Clarity Act. Connors warned that if the bill doesn't progress before September 15, even if the regulatory environment is relatively relaxed, damaged market sentiment will cause BTC to fall back from $72,000. This is the biggest short-term downside risk due to lack of policy certainty following improvements in macro-liquidity.