The Zhitong Finance App learned that market research agency Counterpoint Research predicts that Samsung Electronics is expected to regain the top position in the smartphone market this year, which shows that it is more resistant to rising memory chip prices.
Since this year, the shortage of memory chips has continued to increase. Counterpoint predicts that global smartphone shipments will fall by 14.3% in 2026, with Chinese manufacturers being hit the hardest. With its highly integrated supply chain and mature channel network, Samsung is expected to buck the trend and grow by 0.8%, thereby surpassing Apple (AAPL.US) by a narrow margin, making it one of the few exceptions.
Counterpoint further indicated that the overall market will continue to decline in 2027 and is not expected to recover until 2028. Although Apple is similar to Samsung and can withstand component price increases, research institutes are more cautious about its prospects. In addition to Samsung, only Huawei is expected to maintain significant growth because of US sanctions, which lays out its own hardware supply ahead of schedule.
Yang Wang, chief analyst at Counterpoint, stated, “The key to Samsung's return to the top is its internal component self-sufficiency, rich product portfolio, and long-term strong partnerships with operators and retail channels. China's leading smartphone makers are expected to face greater shipping pressure. The acceleration of industry consolidation is still Counterpoint's basic judgment on this downward cycle.”
In the price-sensitive market segment, some brands are particularly affected, and Yang Wang expects their shipments to drop by up to 34%.
Although the new artificial intelligence (AI) features and the market's widely anticipated foldable iPhone will launch this year, Counterpoint believes these are not enough to trigger a large-scale switching boom.
Yang Wang said, “Folding screens and end-side AI should help differentiate and high-end products, but they are not expected to spawn a broad shipping supercycle.”