The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Link Branch, published an article stating that from January to July 2026, the national commercial housing market was still in a deep adjustment cycle. Sales area and sales declined by double digits year on year, but the decline continued to narrow since March, and the price side showed signs of stabilization month by month. The core contradiction has moved from “price decline” to “energy contraction,” and regional and urban differentiation has become extreme — first-tier cities and core metropolitan areas are more resilient in volume and price, and the volume of energy flowing out of the central and western provinces has generally declined by more than 60%. The policy underpinning effect is already showing marginally, but the full recovery of the industry still needs to wait for inventory removal, residents' income expectations, and substantial improvements in population fundamentals.
1. The national trend of new home prices
The average price of new homes across the country is characterized by a long cycle of “rising first, then falling, then falling from a high level”. From 2016 to 2021, there was a continuous upward period, with an average annual increase of 35.6% from 7,476 yuan to 10,139 yuan. 2021 was the peak of prices. Since 2022, it has entered a downward channel. After a brief rebound in 2023 to an average annual average of 10,437 yuan, it weakened again. From 2024 to 2026, the annual average was 9885, 9527, and 9,489 yuan, respectively. Looking at the cumulative average price from January to July, the peak in 2021 was about 10,653 yuan, and fell back to 9,488 yuan in 2026, with a cumulative decline of about 10.9%. The year 2026 showed a month-on-month recovery trend, from 8871 yuan in February to 9780 yuan in July, with a continuous month-on-month recovery, indicating that the price side showed signs of marginal stabilization under policy support, but the absolute level was still significantly lower than the historical peak.
2. Trends in commercial housing
From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 45.21 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%; of these, the residential sales area decreased by 12.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4271.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1%; of these, residential sales fell 13.2%.
The commercial housing market's operating trajectory since 2025 has “both declined in volume and volume, first expanded, then received”. The cumulative sales area growth rate continued to decline from a 4.0% decline in January-July 2025 to a 13.5% decline from January to February 2026, then narrowed month by month to an 11.8% decline in January-July; the sales growth trend was steeper, from a 6.5% decline to a 20.2% decline in January-February 2026, and then recovered to a 13.1% decline. There is always a “scissor gap” between the two lines — the decline in sales continues to outweigh the decline in sales area, reflecting the additional drag on sales due to the decline in average prices. The decline has continued to narrow since March 2026, indicating that policy combinations such as trade-in and downpayment reduction have had a marginal backstopping effect, but negative double-digit growth was maintained from January to July. The market has not yet broken out of the adjustment range, and it will take time to recover capacity.
3. Analysis of commercial housing sales trends over the years
A structural turn in the ten-year cycle of the real estate industry. The sales area fell from a peak of 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to 800 million square meters in 2025, and was only 450 million square meters from January to July 2026, which is lower than the peak; sales fell from 18.2 trillion yuan to 8.4 trillion yuan, and 4.3 trillion from January to July 2026. The area of housing for sale bucked the trend and climbed from 500 million square meters in 2020 to 760 million square meters in 2026, and the pressure to remove the pressure continues to accumulate.
Land concession revenue in 2021 was 8705.1 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of real estate sales; in 2023, land concession revenue was 579.6 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of real estate sales; in 2024, land concession revenue was 4869.9 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of house sales revenue, and real estate contributed greatly to local finance. The 2025 land sales revenue data still accounts for 49% of housing prices.
Currently, the relationship between automobile sales and real estate sales in January-July 2026 is a 30-square-meter house/1 vehicle, and the unreasonable comparison of sales has improved. Although motorhomes have improved compared to the 70-square-meter house/1 car at their peak in 2020, the pressure on debt in the early period and the pressure on the current 10,000 yuan property market are still squeezing consumption, causing demand in the car market to be sluggish due to debt pressure.
The wealth effect of the property market has had a certain effect on boosting demand for high-end cars. The recent decline in residents' property market debt pressure and weakening demand for home purchases have also brought certain potential benefits to improving car market consumption.
4. Analysis of changes in commercial housing sales
Regional differentiation is a core characteristic of this round of adjustments. The cumulative sales area of commercial housing across the country fell from a peak of 1,016 million square meters in 2021 to 450 million square meters in 2026 from January to July, an overall decline of 56%. Looking at the subregion, the Eastern Central Government's performance was the most resistant to decline, falling only 11% from the peak in 2026 and reaching 54% in 2026. Core cities are more resilient to immediate demand and improvement demand; the Northwest China (-39%) and the East - North China (-41%) are second. The deepest decline was in Southwest China (-64%), Central - Yangtze River (-61%), East - South China (-61%), and East China (-60%). These regions previously relied on development models with high turnover and high leverage to adjust the concentrated release of de-escalation pressure. Northeast China (-59%) and Central - Yellow River (-52%) were also deeply adjusted. Overall, core metropolitan areas with population inflows are relatively resistant to decline, while regions with strong industrial support in the central and western regions have experienced the highest decline in population outflows and high inventories, and the pattern of regional differentiation will prolong.
5. The average real estate price changed relatively little in 2026
The average price at the provincial level presents a pattern of “deep adjustment at high levels, stabilization at low levels, and a strong minority”. Among first-tier cities, the average price of Shanghai was 31,125 yuan from January to July 2026, down 30% from the peak of 44,229 yuan in 2023; Beijing was 30,225 yuan, down 28% from the 2021 peak of 41,868 yuan, and the price adjustment in first-tier cities exceeded expectations. Among the eastern coastal provinces, Zhejiang (-24%), Jiangsu (-26%), and Chongqing (-28%) experienced deep declines; Guangdong showed the strongest performance, with an average price of 15,996 yuan in 2026, down only 1% from the peak, standing at 91%, thanks to industrial and population support in the Pearl River Delta. Hainan (-10%), Tianjin (-8%), and Fujian (-9%) are relatively resistant to falling. Among the central and western provinces, the average price in Xinjiang reached a record high of 6100 yuan in 2026 (standing at 100%), Gansu (-2%) and Ningxia (-2%) are close to their peak, and the price resilience is strong in low base regions; while most provinces such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Guizhou, and Guangxi have the lowest average price since 2020 (0% position), and the downward pressure on prices is still strong.
6. Severe differentiation in real estate sales area in 2026
The degree of differentiation in sales area at the provincial level far exceeds the average price, showing an extreme pattern of “core cities resisting decline and central and western provinces falling deep.” Beijing sold 6.09 million square meters from January to July 2026, almost flat compared to the peak of 6.12 million square meters in 2023 (standing 99%), making it the most resistant province in the country; Shanghai was 9.43 million square meters, down only 3% from the peak (standing 81%); Hainan 4.64 million square meters, down 13% (67% position). Thanks to strict supply controls and strong immediate support, these three regions have outstanding market resilience. The declines in Tianjin (-27%), Hubei (-33%), and Hebei (-35%) were relatively manageable. The vast majority of the Midwest and Northeast provinces had the lowest sales area since 2020 (0%). Anhui saw the deepest decline, falling 75% from a peak of 63.73 million square meters in 2021 to 15.78 million square meters; Guangxi (-71%), Chongqing (-69%), Fujian (-67%), Jiangxi (-65%), and Liaoning (-65%) followed. This shows that this round of adjustments has evolved from “price adjustments” to “quantitative energy collapse”. Demand-side contraction in the third- and fourth-tier cities is the core contradiction, and market recovery will be highly dependent on the fundamental support of population and industry.