The Zhitong Finance App learned that in early August, market performance was weak at the beginning of the month due to high temperature vacations and the extreme weather of typhoons from various manufacturers, according to the Zhitong Finance App. Beginning in the middle of the month, demand suppressed earlier was gradually released in a compensatory manner, terminal passenger flow improved, and the total market volume began to recover to a low level. At the end of the month, the Chengdu Auto Show began, and pre-sales of a large number of new cars began. The popularity of the market clearly rebounded. Combined with local policies, the car market showed a steady upward trend. However, since consumption expectations and fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market is still operating on a low platform with a year-on-year decline of more than 20%, and the real peak season has yet to arrive. According to preliminary estimates, the total passenger car market in the narrow sense of the term this month is about 1.58 million units, of which retail sales of new energy can reach about 1.04 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 65.8%.
I. Sales trends of manufacturers
According to the latest research results, leading manufacturers, which account for more than 70% of total market sales, have retail targets for this month increasing by about 8% over the previous month, which is basically in line with the seasonal performance of previous years. Various manufacturers resumed their normal production and sales rhythm one after another after the high temperature holiday at the beginning of the month. Combined with the actual terminal target completion schedule, the narrow passenger car retail market size in August was about 1.58 million units, up 8.1% from the previous month, and the year-on-year decline was still greater than 20%. Of these, retail sales of new energy are expected to be around 1.04 million vehicles, and the penetration rate can reach 65.8%.
II. Weekly trend estimation
In the first week of August, due to the impact of the manufacturer's high temperature holiday and the typhoon along the southeast coast, terminal entry and transactions were blocked, and the market was at a low level; in the second week, post-disaster recovery combined with the release of early demand suppression, and terminal transactions picked up; in the third week, the opening of the Chengdu Auto Show was imminent, new car information was being intensively released, market attention increased, and orders continued to improve month-on-month; in the fourth week, the auto show effect was compounded by the impact at the end of the month, and the average daily retail sales were expected to reach 77,000 vehicles, reaching a relatively high point for the whole month. Retail sales for the whole month are expected to reach 1.58 million units, up 8.1% from the previous month and down 21.7% from the previous year.
Structural differentiation in the car market intensified in March and August
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 2.6% year-on-year from January to July 2026. The consumer market is generally growing steadily, but structural differentiation is obvious. Among them, retail sales of services increased by 5%, and the growth rate was 3.9 percentage points higher than retail sales of products. The trend of consumer demand shifting from products to experiences continues. Among them, retail sales of automobile consumer goods fell 13.2% year on year. The passenger car retail side continued to decline due to the macroeconomic environment and consumption expectations. It is still a major drag on bulk consumption, and consumer wait-and-see sentiment is still strong.
August is not the traditional peak season for the car market. Hot summer weather combined with extreme weather effects such as typhoons. The total market volume is still low, but restoration momentum is gradually accumulating. Fuel vehicles continue to be pressured by high fuel prices and product aging, and are expected to maintain a large year-on-year decline; in contrast, the new energy market has ushered in a new structural growth point. With the launch of a large number of new models at the Chengdu Auto Show and the simultaneous release of benefits, driving the clean-up of old models and the recovery in popularity of terminals, the iteration of new energy and intelligent products is expected to drive further strength in the new energy market and revitalize market demand along with the trade-in policy.