Last week, you might have seen that China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (HKG:291) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to HK$21.12 in the past week. China Resources Beer (Holdings) reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥24b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.06, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, China Resources Beer (Holdings)'s 31 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be CN¥38.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 97% to CN¥1.67. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥38.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.77 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for China Resources Beer (Holdings)
The average price target fell 9.7% to HK$30.90, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic China Resources Beer (Holdings) analyst has a price target of HK$47.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$24.40. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that China Resources Beer (Holdings)'s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than China Resources Beer (Holdings).
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple China Resources Beer (Holdings) analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - China Resources Beer (Holdings) has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.