Every fall, a certain orange cup shows up on social media feeds and coffee counters nationwide. For Starbucks (SBUX) shareholders, that cup means something more than nostalgia this year.
Aug. 25 marks the return of Pumpkin Spice Latte season at Starbucks coffeehouses nationwide, according to a company statement. It also arrives as the coffee giant shows signs of a turnaround, which investors have been watching all year closely.
Here is why the date matters, both for coffee lovers and for anyone tracking SBUX stock.
Pumpkin Spice Season Kicks Off Starbucks' Biggest Quarter
Fall is historically one of Starbucks' strongest stretches, and this year's lineup leans into that tradition while adding new twists.
- The Pumpkin Spice Latte returns Aug. 25 alongside fan favorites like the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew and Iced Pumpkin Cream Chai.
- Three new pumpkin drinks join the menu too: an Iced Pumpkin Cream Shaken Espresso, an Iced Pumpkin Cream Matcha, and a Pumpkin Spice Chai.
- Starbucks is also leaning into another trending flavor. Two new banana bread-inspired beverages, an Iced Banana Bread Latte and an Iced Banana Bread Chai, join the fall lineup.
- A new Iced Chaider blends chai with strawberry acai for a cider-like drink, the company said.
- On the food side, Starbucks is adding a Chicken Bacon Protein Pocket with 20 grams of protein, a Hedgehog Cake Pop, and the return of the Pumpkin Cream Cheese Muffin.
- New grab-and-go snacks, including beef sticks, cheese trays, and protein bites, round out the fall menu, according to the statement.
- To mark the occasion, Starbucks is launching a PSL Society merchandise collection on Aug. 25, featuring a $29.95 embroidered PSL hat, a $29.95 stainless steel cold cup, and a $19.95 ceramic mug.
- The company also partnered with Martha Stewart to promote the launch.
Why Starbucks' Stock Is Building Momentum
The seasonal buzz is landing on top of strong financial results, which is part of why Wall Street is paying attention. Starbucks reported its fourth straight quarter of positive global sales at existing stores and its second straight quarter of margin growth in its fiscal third quarter, Chief Executive Brian Niccol said on the company's July 29 earnings call.
Consolidated revenue reached $9.3 billion, and global comparable sales grew 7.9%, an improvement from the prior quarter. In the United States specifically, sales at existing stores climbed 7.9%, split fairly evenly between more customer visits and higher average spending, Chief Financial Officer Cathy Smith said on the call.
Earnings per share jumped about 70% year-over-year (YoY) to $0.85, and North America operating margin grew YoY for the first time since early fiscal 2024. Niccol credited the gains to Green Apron Service, the company's yearlong effort to staff stores better, speed up orders, and improve consistency.
Starbucks Rewards is also playing a bigger role in driving repeat visits. The company counted 35.8 million active members in the United States over a rolling 90-day period, just four months after relaunching the program, Niccol said.
Store remodels, which the company calls “uplifts,” are another piece of the puzzle. Starbucks passed 1,000 uplifted coffeehouses in North America during the quarter, hitting its yearly goal early, and now plans to reach at least 1,500 by year-end.
Smith noted the uplifts cost about $150,000 on average and are done overnight, so stores never close. Early data shows the renovated locations are drawing more transactions throughout the day, she said.
What Comes Next for SBUX Stock
Based on the quarter's strength, Starbucks raised its full-year guidance.
The company now expects fiscal 2026 earnings per share between $2.55 and $2.65, along with a consolidated operating margin above 11%, Smith said on the call. Management also flagged that some underperforming North America stores could close as the company sharpens its focus on quality over pure store count, Niccol said. Meanwhile, international growth, powered largely by licensed locations, remains the company's primary path to opening new coffeehouses.
Analysts tracking SBUX stock forecast free cash flow to expand from $2.44 billion in fiscal 2025 (ending in September) to $8.31 billion in fiscal 2030. If SBUX stock trades at 28x forward FCF, similar to its five-year average, Starbucks stock could surge roughly 55% over the next three years. Adjusting for dividends, cumulative returns could be closer to 65%.
Out of the 35 analysts covering SBUX stock, 12 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend “Moderate Buy,” 16 recommend “Hold,” one recommends “Moderate Sell,” and four recommend “Strong Sell.” The Starbucks stock price target is $111, above the current price of $107.
Put together, Aug. 25 is more than a menu refresh. It is the start of Starbucks' busiest selling season, arriving right as the company tries to prove its turnaround has staying power. For Starbucks stock fans, that combination is worth watching closely this fall.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.