The Donald Trump administration’s recent Section 232 tariffs on polysilicon imports could pave the way for direct government equity stakes in the domestic solar supply chain. Retail investors are watching First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) and Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW) closely as industry experts suggest the federal government is actively utilizing its Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) “style” equity playbook to secure domestic energy.
‘Trump Loves A Deal’: The Intel-Style Playbook
The August 2026 Section 232 trade action introduced a 15% tariff and a minimum import price floor on polysilicon, justified by national security language regarding critical mineral supply chains. Matt Roling, a climate finance expert and professor at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, exclusively told Benzinga that the administration is consistently converting existing federal funding promises into direct equity.
“To be fair, the Trump administration is piggy-backing off of the industrial policy work the Biden admin did to address this problem (IRA, BIL, CHIPS ACT), but opting for equity (dilutive) over more traditional grants and loans that previous administrations preferred (Trump loves a deal!),” Roling explains.
He adds that any company in a Section 232 sector with unresolved federal funding “now carries real, unpriced government-partnership optionality.” However, he warns that these government equity stakes also “import political risk that wasn’t in these valuations before.”
The Two Stocks To Watch: First Solar and Corning
While Wall Street initially applied a broad ‘Trump Bump’ to the solar sector, Roling emphasizes that First Solar and Corning offer two entirely different investment theses.
First Solar’s thin-film technology bypasses polysilicon entirely. Consequently, the company is not a direct beneficiary of the new tariffs but instead possesses “structural immunity.” This advantage is durable and does not rely on future policy shifts.
Conversely, Corning is a direct beneficiary through its subsidiary, Hemlock Semiconductor, which currently holds a $325 million CHIPS award. Hemlock’s federal exposure makes it a prime candidate for an equity conversion.
Still, Roling warns that Corning’s upside is highly “policy-contingent,” and complicated by a joint venture with Japan’s Shin-Etsu Handotai, making a potential swap “messier than Intel’s swap.”
The Bear Case: Margin Squeeze For Installers
The initial market optimism for downstream installers like Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) and SunPower Inc. (NASDAQ:SPWR) is misguided, as the higher polysilicon costs will act as a tax on their core business models.
While existing inventory and locked-in contracts will briefly delay the financial impact of the Dec. 4, 2026, tariffs, Roling expects a tangible earnings hit to land in the first half of 2027.
How Have FSLR and GLW Performed in 2026?
FSLR shares dropped 20.83% year-to-date, advanced by 3.70% over the last year, and fell 1.57% over the last six months. It closed 0.72% lower at $206.82 per share on Tuesday, and it was 0.59% higher in premarket on Wednesday.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that FSLR maintains a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a solid growth score.
GLW shares rose 68.07% year-to-date, advanced by 120.37% over the last year, and fell 8.27% over the last six months. It closed 1.11% higher at $147.16 per share on Tuesday, and it was 0.19% higher in premarket on Wednesday.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that GLW maintains a weak price trend in the short and medium terms and a strong trend in the long term, with a solid quality score.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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