Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
ULTA reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | -$5.90 (-1.18%) | $10.36 (2.07%) | -$23.66 (-4.78%) | $18.09 (3.66%) |
| 2026-03-12 | -$27.94 (-4.28%) | $32.90 (5.04%) | -$88.98 (-14.24%) | $44.77 (7.17%) |
| 2025-12-04 | -$10.57 (-1.94%) | $24.91 (4.57%) | +$67.55 (+12.65%) | $36.90 (6.91%) |
| 2025-08-28 | -$3.18 (-0.60%) | $12.42 (2.33%) | -$37.90 (-7.14%) | $46.38 (8.74%) |
| 2025-05-29 | +$4.78 (+1.15%) | $12.85 (3.08%) | +$49.67 (+11.78%) | $25.15 (5.96%) |
| 2025-03-13 | -$14.76 (-4.48%) | $20.53 (6.24%) | +$43.01 (+13.68%) | $29.58 (9.41%) |
| 2024-12-05 | -$6.94 (-1.74%) | $11.55 (2.89%) | +$35.30 (+8.99%) | $22.85 (5.82%) |
| 2024-08-29 | +$0.76 (+0.21%) | $8.41 (2.29%) | -$14.74 (-4.01%) | $19.43 (5.29%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.95% | 3.56% | 9.66% | 6.62% |
Historical price action shows significant volatility around ULTA earnings, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 9.66%—substantially higher than the Day 0 average of 1.95%. This pattern makes sense given the after-close timing: the real reaction comes the following trading session.
The most dramatic recent move came in March 2026, when the stock plunged 14.24% the day after reporting Q4 2025 results, despite only a modest 4.28% decline on Day 0. Conversely, December 2025 saw a powerful 12.65% rally on Day +1 following Q3 results. The wide range of outcomes—from -14.24% to +12.65%—underscores that ULTA earnings are high-stakes events where execution matters enormously.
The average Day +1 range of 6.62% indicates substantial intraday volatility as well, suggesting that initial reactions often get refined as investors digest the details. Most recently in June 2026, the stock showed relatively muted movement with just a 1.18% Day 0 decline and 4.78% Day +1 drop, potentially reflecting reduced volatility as the company met expectations.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/28/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $42.08 (7.75%) |
| Expected Range | $501.11 to $585.27 |
| Implied Volatility | 151.07% |
The options market is pricing a 7.75% expected move for this earnings release, which sits below the 9.66% average historical Day +1 move but aligns more closely with recent behavior. This suggests options traders are anticipating a more moderate reaction than the dramatic swings seen in late 2025 and early 2026, possibly reflecting increased confidence in the company's ability to deliver in-line or slightly better results.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on ULTA remains strongly bullish, with an average rating of 4.32 out of 5.0 (between Buy and Strong Buy). The consensus is heavily skewed positive: 17 Strong Buys and 1 Moderate Buy versus just 6 Holds and 1 Strong Sell among the 25 analysts covering the stock.
The average price target of $623.52 implies 14.8% upside from the current price of $543.19, suggesting analysts see meaningful appreciation potential even after the stock's recent gains. The range of targets is notably wide, spanning from a low of $450.00 to a high of $735.00, reflecting divergent views on the company's growth trajectory and valuation.
Critically, analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, indicating stable conviction levels heading into the report. The lack of recent downgrades or upgrades suggests analysts are comfortable with their current stance and are waiting for the Q2 results to provide fresh catalysts for reassessment. The concentration of Strong Buy ratings—17 out of 25 analysts—demonstrates that the bull case remains firmly intact despite competitive pressures in the beauty retail space.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a Sell signal at 8%, unchanged from last week but representing a dramatic shift from the 56% Sell reading just one month ago. This improvement suggests technical pressure has eased considerably, though the signal remains cautious heading into earnings.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Neutral-to-positive signal indicates near-term momentum has stabilized after recent weakness
- Medium-term (50% Sell): Bearish reading suggests the intermediate trend remains under pressure despite recent improvement
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal reflects ongoing weakness in the longer-term trend structure
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is at Minimum levels with a Weakening direction, indicating the technical setup lacks conviction and momentum is deteriorating heading into this high-stakes earnings event.
The stock is currently trading above its 5-day ($531.15), 10-day ($522.00), 20-day ($529.66), 50-day ($494.59), and 100-day ($504.74) moving averages, demonstrating short-to-intermediate term strength. However, the price remains below the critical 200-day moving average at $555.56, indicating the longer-term trend has not yet turned decisively bullish.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $531.15 | 50-Day MA | $494.59 |
| 10-Day MA | $522.00 | 100-Day MA | $504.74 |
| 20-Day MA | $529.66 | 200-Day MA | $555.56 |
The technical setup presents a mixed picture with short-term momentum improving but longer-term resistance overhead. The fact that ULTA has reclaimed all moving averages except the 200-day suggests buyers have stepped in after earlier weakness, but the failure to break above that key long-term average at $555.56 leaves the stock vulnerable if earnings disappoint. The weakening trend characteristics and minimal signal strength suggest limited technical support, making fundamental execution on this report even more critical. A beat-and-raise scenario could provide the catalyst needed to reclaim the 200-day MA and shift the technical picture decisively bullish, while any disappointment could trigger a retest of the 50-day support near $495.