Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
PagerDuty reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | +$0.25 (+3.48%) | $0.47 (6.61%) | +$2.51 (+33.74%) | $1.33 (17.81%) |
| 2026-03-12 | -$0.10 (-1.36%) | $0.50 (6.78%) | -$0.20 (-2.75%) | $1.25 (17.19%) |
| 2025-11-25 | +$0.32 (+2.15%) | $0.43 (2.89%) | -$3.54 (-23.32%) | $1.89 (12.48%) |
| 2025-09-03 | -$0.53 (-3.29%) | $1.69 (10.48%) | +$0.98 (+6.29%) | $1.53 (9.81%) |
| 2025-05-29 | +$0.10 (+0.63%) | $0.42 (2.66%) | -$1.84 (-11.43%) | $1.07 (6.65%) |
| 2025-03-13 | -$0.64 (-3.94%) | $0.69 (4.22%) | +$2.77 (+17.75%) | $1.94 (12.43%) |
| 2024-11-26 | +$0.26 (+1.26%) | $0.58 (2.83%) | +$0.10 (+0.48%) | $2.33 (11.15%) |
| 2024-09-03 | -$1.49 (-7.53%) | $1.60 (8.09%) | -$0.21 (-1.15%) | $1.96 (10.72%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.95% | 5.57% | 12.11% | 12.28% |
PagerDuty's post-earnings price behavior shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 12.11% following earnings releases. The historical pattern reveals dramatic swings in both directions—the stock surged 33.74% the day after the May 2026 report but plunged 23.32% following the November 2025 release, illustrating how sensitive the market is to the company's quarterly results and guidance.
The Day 0 moves average just 2.95%, reflecting relatively muted anticipatory trading, but the Day +1 average of 12.11% demonstrates that investors react forcefully once actual results and management commentary are available. The intraday ranges are also substantial, averaging 12.28% on Day +1, indicating significant intraday volatility as the market digests the information. Recent earnings have shown particularly explosive moves, with the May 2026 report triggering a 33.74% rally—the largest single-day reaction in the dataset—suggesting heightened investor sensitivity to PagerDuty's execution and outlook.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 09/18/26 (DTE 23) |
| Expected Move | $1.83 (14.99%) |
| Expected Range | $10.36 to $14.02 |
| Implied Volatility | 93.70% |
The options market is pricing a 14.99% expected move for this earnings release, significantly above the stock's average historical Day +1 move of 12.11%. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating a larger-than-typical reaction, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether PagerDuty can sustain its earnings beat streak or concerns about revenue growth guidance.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a cautious stance on PagerDuty, with a consensus rating of 3.56 (Hold) and a mean price target of $10.29, which implies 16% downside from the current price of $12.19. The analyst community is divided, with 3 Strong Buys and 5 Holds offset by 1 Moderate Sell, reflecting disagreement about whether the company's improved profitability justifies the recent stock price appreciation.
The sentiment trend is unchanged over the past month, with the rating distribution holding steady at 3 Strong Buys, 5 Holds, and 1 Moderate Sell. This stability suggests analysts are waiting for additional evidence before adjusting their views, despite the stock's strong recent performance. The price target range spans from a low of $8.00 to a high of $13.00, with the mean target sitting well below the current trading level.
The disconnect between the stock's recent momentum and analyst price targets is notable—PagerDuty has rallied sharply over the past three months, yet the consensus target implies the stock has overshot fair value. This divergence suggests analysts either believe the earnings beat streak is unsustainable, have concerns about revenue growth prospects, or view the current valuation as stretched relative to the company's growth profile. The upcoming earnings release will be critical in determining whether analysts raise targets to reflect improved fundamentals or maintain their cautious stance.
Part 4: Technical Picture
PagerDuty enters earnings with strong technical momentum, as the Barchart Technical Opinion shows a Buy signal at 88%, unchanged from last week but significantly improved from the 40% Buy reading a month ago. This sharp strengthening reflects the stock's powerful rally over the past several weeks, with PD climbing well above all major moving averages.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Buy): Maximum bullish signal indicates powerful near-term momentum heading into the earnings release
- Medium-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal confirms the uptrend is well-established across intermediate timeframes
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate positive reading suggests the longer-term trend is constructive but less emphatic than shorter timeframes
Trend Characteristics: The technical setup shows Average strength with a Strengthening direction, indicating momentum is building but not yet at extreme levels that might signal exhaustion.
The stock is trading at $12.19, positioned above the 10-day ($12.10), 20-day ($11.67), 50-day ($10.47), 100-day ($8.92), and 200-day ($9.68) moving averages, though slightly below the 5-day average ($12.26) after a minor pullback. This alignment of moving averages in bullish order—with shorter-term averages above longer-term ones—confirms a healthy uptrend structure.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $12.26 | 50-Day MA | $10.47 |
| 10-Day MA | $12.10 | 100-Day MA | $8.92 |
| 20-Day MA | $11.67 | 200-Day MA | $9.68 |
The technical picture is decidedly supportive heading into earnings, with PD trading near recent highs and maintaining position above all key moving averages. The 16% gain above the 50-day moving average and 37% premium to the 100-day average illustrate the strength of the recent rally. However, the slight retreat below the 5-day average suggests some near-term consolidation or profit-taking ahead of the release. The overall setup favors bulls, but the stock's extended position above longer-term averages means a disappointing report could trigger an outsized pullback, while a strong beat might face resistance as investors take profits after the recent run.