The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that with the upgrading of the AI large chip package size, glass substrates are expected to become an important material platform for the next generation of advanced packaging, and related core equipment links are expected to benefit first. The equipment side suggests focusing on two core investment paths: 1) Focus on core incremental aspects: TGV equipment, high-precision, high-density holes in glass panels. Compared with TSV, the process omits insulation layer and reduces high-speed signal loss; 2) It is recommended to focus on high-value, high-tech barriers and low localization rate equipment in equipment that improves glass characteristics and board-level packaging characteristics: such as PVD, electroplating, exposure, and inspection.
CICC's main views are as follows:
Glass substrates are in the “0 to 1” stage. The core scenario is advanced packaging, which has high potential for growth.
As AI computing power chips evolve to larger sizes and higher densities, traditional CoWoS paths face challenges such as high cost, difficult warpage control, and large yield bottlenecks. With characteristics such as low thermal expansion coefficient and low dielectric constant, glass substrates can be used for temporary carriers, glass core substrates, and glass intermediates. The world's leading manufacturers are generally in the pilot line construction, sample delivery, and customer verification stages. The bank expects 2027-2028 to be a key point for small-batch commercial use. At the same time, glass substrates are being opened simultaneously in the fields of CPO optoelectronics co-packaging, consumer electronics, communications, etc., and there is plenty of room for growth.
The total space for glass substrates is nearly 50 billion yuan by 2030, and the long-term penetration rate is expected to reach 100 billion yuan.
On the material side, the bank estimates that the CoPos Panel market space for glass intermediates in 2030 is 9.4 billion yuan, and the market space for glass motherboards is 41.5 billion yuan; the equipment side has a cumulative market space of about 48.9 billion yuan by 2030; the bank believes that as the penetration rate of glass substrates increases, the long-term equipment space is expected to reach 100 billion yuan.
The equipment side suggests focusing on two core investment paths: 1) Focus on core incremental aspects: TGV equipment, high-precision, high-density holes in glass panels. Compared with TSV, the process omits insulation layer and reduces high-speed signal loss; 2) It is recommended to focus on high-value, high-tech barriers and low localization rate equipment in equipment that improves glass characteristics and board-level packaging characteristics: such as PVD, electroplating, exposure, and inspection. Among them, PVD and electroplating processes are complicated, accounting for about 40% of production line investment. High barriers in the electroplating process and the easy occurrence of hollow core holes have a great impact on the yield of the substrate, and the overall localization rate is still low.
Risk warning: industrialization progress falls short of expected risk; downstream demand falls short of expected risk.