The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the hotel sector's current valuation and market value are at the bottom of the historical cycle, and leading companies still have plenty of room to expand their stores. The chain integration rate of the industry will be higher than expected, and the advantages of leading hotels in terms of product, scale, efficiency, and brand dimensions are still expanding. The optimization of the OTA ecosystem benefits the factor side and practitioners, and is more beneficial to the phased distribution of profits in the industrial chain to the leading hotel chains.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
Market capitalization estimates are at the bottom, but there is still clear room for medium- to long-term growth
① The valuations of A-share and Hong Kong-US stock hotel groups fell back to the bottom 10 to 15x range of the historical cycle, and the market value of Jinjiang and First Travel fell back to pre-merger levels, but the size, profit quality, and level of capitalization of leading stores were significantly superior to previous cycles. ② In terms of store expansion, the leader maintains a high absolute store opening scale, 70? The 149-room property maintains a normal pace of store expansion. Long-term 30? 69-room properties account for 28.1% of guest rooms, but the linkage rate is less than 20%, and product innovation will also bring considerable growth. ③ Four major factors are driving up the chain chain and concentration ceiling: technological empowerment, standardization of supervision, improvement of financial instruments, and unified market construction. CR4 Hotel GTV market share will reach 25.1% in 2025, and the competitive advantages of Huazhu and Yaduo will continue to expand. The internal segmentation of industry leaders has intensified, the gap in product strength and operational efficiency has further widened, and the industry pattern of strong players continues to strengthen, laying the foundation for the implementation of subsequent performance.
Platform ecology optimization, phased distribution of profits in the industrial chain favors hotels
① After Ctrip's anti-monopoly penalties were implemented, old rules such as exclusive cooperation, the lowest price on the entire network, and automatic AI price adjustment were abolished, and a five-dimensional operating radar map was launched. The traffic distribution mechanism is fairer, and the traffic costs of leading hotel groups with outstanding brands and operational capabilities are expected to be optimized. ② Franchisee resources are further concentrated at the head, changes in platform rules benefit chain leaders, and profit distribution in the industrial chain is skewed towards the hotel side. ③ The monetization rate of the hotel group's franchise business is rising steadily. Relying on supply chain collection and value-added services to expand commercialization potential, comprehensive service capabilities outside the membership system have become a new growth gripper. Comprehensive valuation position, growth space and catalytic factors, the sector allocation value is highlighted, and the focus is on leading hotel companies with scale and product advantages.
The economy fluctuates frequently, and the trend inflection point is expected to be 27Q1 or 27Q2
① On the demand side, summer performance was lackluster in July 2026 due to multiple factors such as weather, fuel prices, and travel diversion. Travel demand picked up in August, and there was a marked recovery in operating data. ② Considering the underlying factors, under the assumption that demand-side expectations remain neutral, it is expected that industry operating data for the second half of 2026 will remain under pressure. Overall demand for business travel and tourism will remain stable, and the trending inflection point period will fall in the first and second quarter of 2027. ③ The supply side has continued to slow since 2025Q3, and the room volume growth rate of hotel chains has declined. If demand picks up later, the low supply growth rate will amplify the upward elasticity of RevPAR, and performance recovery will be more sustainable. However, we still need to be wary of risks such as weak consumer consumption, reduced travel for small and medium-sized enterprises, extreme weather disturbances, or lengthening the industry's recovery cycle.
Risk warning: Continued fluctuations in oil price factors affect travel costs, weather factors affect travel demand, small and medium-sized enterprises reduce the risk of travel costs, and residents' spending capacity continues to be sluggish.