The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities International released a research report saying that the current stock price of Haidilao (06862) corresponds to 13.8 times the 2027 mid-term price-earnings ratio, and is at a low level of nearly two years, which is an excellent window for laying out its long-term fundamental restoration. The high dividend ratio establishes a solid downward safety cushion, and the combination of multiple brand expansion returns to an accelerated path. The target risk-benefit ratio is very attractive, and the rating was raised from “neutral” to “increase in holdings”. Considering the increase in revenue contributions from the delivery business and new brands, the bank slightly raised its 2026-2027 revenue forecast, with an average increase of 1%; due to increased short-term promotion investment and rising raw material costs, the two-year net profit forecast was lowered by 2.5%. The target price was reduced from HK$16 to HK$14.4.
The company's performance in the first half of 2026 was steady, clearly signaling an inflection point. Revenue increased 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 22.3 billion, which was at the upper limit of the bank's forecast range; net profit was slightly lower than expected due to increased promotion, which dragged down the decline in gross margin. However, the bank believes that this round of profit margin pressure is active investment, which is a necessary measure for the company to stabilize its market share and increase customer flow in stores. What is more noteworthy is that the management exceeded expectations and paid an interim dividend of HK$0.377 per share, with a dividend ratio of nearly 100%, reflecting management's confidence in the company's strong cash flow creation ability and long-term operating fundamentals.