According to Woofun AI, the July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data released on August 26 showed that the overall inflation rate was 3.7%, and the core inflation rate was 3.3%. Both indicators were higher than the Federal Reserve's target level. The futures market reacted quickly, and the probability of interest rate hikes in September climbed from 36% to 44%.
Despite the tightening macro environment, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $79,251.60 and remained trading around $78,000.
Li pointed out that in the context of no substantial change in interest rate expectations, the trend of Bitcoin depends on ETF capital flow, spot market liquidity, and derivatives position structure. It is worth noting that wallets of all sizes, from small holders to large addresses, simultaneously carry out fund-raising operations. Sygnum Bank Chief Investment Officer Fabian Dorry analyzed that in the context of strong PMI and weak wage growth in the service sector, core PCE is in line with consensus, which means that the decline in inflation is due to non-demand shocks, which is beneficial to digital assets. As it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to act clearly on this basis, expectations for the September meeting remain unchanged. In the $81,000 to $86,000 range, factors such as the self-hosting model cost benchmark, changes in market maker gamma values around $82,300, short-term liquidation pressure, and concentrated supply from long-term holders are intertwined.
Glassnode emphasized that a breakthrough can only be confirmed if the closing price stabilizes above $83,300 and is accompanied by continued ETF inflows. Iggy Iope, chief investment officer at DWF Labs, said that the current data is neither a reason for raising interest rates nor a basis for cutting interest rates, and the policy stance is still relaxed compared to inflation and employment data. This situation has continued for several months. If there is no action at every Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it actually acquiesces to relax policies to provide structural support for risky assets, and there is no need for extreme dovish measures. IOPE believes that Bitcoin's performance is milder than the return of institutional funds, but this is only a matter of time; the basic logic has not changed.
Data compiled by Woofun AI showed that as of the October expiration date, call options had higher transaction costs than put options, and the implied volatility rose from the 4th percentile over the past 12 months to the 56th percentile on August 17.
Martin Lee, head of market analysis at DWF Labs, notes that traders are paying for short-term price increases. If the data is in line with expectations, the optimism since last week will continue, and risk-appetite assets will maintain their upward momentum. The bullish view is that as long as ETF funds continue to flow in and market capital conditions are stable, Bitcoin can close above $83,300 during the trading day. In this scenario, the $81,000 to $86,000 range would no longer be a resistance, but rather supply being digested by the market, paving the way towards the $95,000-$100,000 target. On the other hand, the bearish view is that the fund-raising activity of wallets of all sizes will weaken, and ETF funds will flow out, causing Bitcoin to fall below the $70,000 short-term cost benchmark for holders. At this point, the rebound was not driven by cash funds, but rather delayed profit settlement, and $62,000 to $65,000 would be a key support level to be verified.
The ultimate verification of long and short games lies in buying ability. If the promised supply around $81,000 actually works, buyers will have to face multiple tests of stress on Friday: including the expiration of options, the Jackson Hole Conference, and the $6.4 billion funding deadline. The liquidity shock caused by the combination of these events will directly test the stability of the current market structure. With the ongoing game between macro data and micro capital, whether Bitcoin can maintain the current valuation system in a high-pressure environment depends on whether institutional capital can provide sufficient liquidity buffers at key points.