Minth Group Limited (HKG:425) last week reported its latest half-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues came in 2.1% below expectations, at CN¥13b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CN¥1.22 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Minth Group's 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥29.2b in 2026. This would be a solid 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.5% to CN¥2.62. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥30.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.66 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
View our latest analysis for Minth Group
The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of HK$47.17, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Minth Group's market value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Minth Group analyst has a price target of HK$57.98 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$33.49. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Minth Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Minth Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Minth Group is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at HK$47.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Minth Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether Minth Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.