Last week, you might have seen that Great Wall Motor Company Limited (HKG:2333) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.6% to HK$7.89 in the past week. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of CN¥1.16 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of CN¥57b came in 3.5% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Great Wall Motor's 20 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CN¥233.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 41% to CN¥0.99. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥244.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.12 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
View our latest analysis for Great Wall Motor
The consensus price target fell 9.9% to HK$12.85, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Great Wall Motor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$20.72 and the most bearish at HK$7.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Great Wall Motor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Great Wall Motor's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Great Wall Motor.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Great Wall Motor. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Great Wall Motor's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Great Wall Motor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Great Wall Motor going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Great Wall Motor that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.