The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report stating that it will reduce the target price of the Ideal Car-W (02015) by 27.2% from HK$75.4 to HK$54.9, maintaining a “neutral” rating. The bank lowered its 2026/2027 sales forecast to 420,000 vehicles; the 2026-2028 revenue forecast was lowered to 113.6 billion/ 127.4 billion/ 138 billion yuan. It is expected that 2026 and 2027 will still lose 3.5 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan, and not turn into profit until 2028.
Profitability improved month-on-month in the second quarter of 2026, but volume prices and profit margins are still under year-on-year pressure, and are currently insufficient to confirm an inflection point in operations. The guidance for the third quarter is significantly lower than market expectations. The bank expects operational improvements to begin in the fourth quarter, but the extent of the restoration still depends on the volume of new products released and whether the L6 basic market is stable. The company directed delivery of 95,000 to 100,000 vehicles in the third quarter, with a median value of about 97,500 vehicles, about 20% lower than market expectations; revenue guidance was RMB 26.6 billion to RMB 28 billion, with a median value of RMB 27.3 billion, about 15% lower than the market's consensus estimate of RMB 32.3 billion, indicating that the third quarter is still in the phase of product switching and new product climbing. Based on the median value of total revenue and delivery guidelines, the month-on-month recovery in ASP in the third quarter reflects the product portfolio improvements implicit in management guidelines.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the new L6 target will maintain monthly sales of about 10,000 vehicles. The new MEGA and the flagship pure electric SUV i9 will be launched one after another in September. If the continuation of new product orders and climbing progress meet expectations, sales volume, product structure and gross margin are expected to improve quarterly. The bank believes that the direction of improvement in the fourth quarter is relatively clear, but whether a reversal can be achieved, it is still necessary to observe order conversion after the launch of i9 and the new Mega, and whether the L6 basic market can stabilize.