Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) has moved into focus after releasing full year results to 27 June 2026, reporting higher sales and revenue alongside lower net income, earnings per share and a reduced fully franked dividend.
At a share price of A$13.17, Super Retail Group has seen mixed momentum, with the share price rising 12.28% over the past 90 days but falling 16.86% year to date. The 1 year total shareholder return of 25% is in decline, while the 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns of 24.70% and 45.74% reflect a stronger longer term outcome, despite the latest earnings and dividend cut weighing on sentiment.
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Bulls point to Super Retail Group's revenue growth and cash generation. Bears highlight falling earnings and a lower dividend. The next step is to test which case the current valuation supports.
Most Popular Narrative: 1.9% Undervalued
Compared with the last close at A$13.17, the most followed narrative for Super Retail Group points to a fair value of A$13.43. This suggests only a small valuation gap that hinges on dividend and growth assumptions rather than a big market disconnect.
A Dividend Discount Model (DDM) valuation estimates intrinsic value at $9.40 ($13.43 including franking credits) versus a market price of $13.24, implying a fair evaluation, while relative multiples imply fair value. Overall, SUL represents a mature, low-growth hold opportunity.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what is driving that A$13.43 fair value for Super Retail Group? The narrative leans heavily on dividend stability, modest revenue growth, and steady margins. It explains how those inputs are combined to justify only a slight undervaluation against today’s price.
In simple terms, this narrative treats Super Retail Group as a mature retailer where income matters as much as growth. Dividend forecasts, long run revenue expansion assumptions and a set discount rate are doing most of the work in the model. If your own view on payout sustainability or future earnings differs, your sense of fair value could shift quite a bit.
Result: Fair Value of A$13.43 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the narrative could be challenged if Super Retail Group faces weaker discretionary spending for longer than expected or if competitive pressure compresses margins and dividend capacity.
Find out about the key risks to this Super Retail Group narrative.
Next Steps
Given the mix of positives and negatives around Super Retail Group, it makes sense to review the underlying data yourself and move quickly to form a balanced view. To see both sides set out clearly, check the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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