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Inside Autodesk's Stock Dip: Surging Cloud Sales Beat Estimates, But Cost Outlook Weighs
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Autodesk Inc (NASDAQ:ADSK) stock remains in focus after the software company delivered stronger-than-expected growth and profitability, while investors weighed an improved revenue outlook against a more measured margin forecast.

• Autodesk shares are retreating from recent levels. Why is ADSK stock dropping?

BTIG Sees Stronger Organic Growth

BTIG analyst Nick Altmann reiterated a Buy rating on Autodesk with a $300 price forecast, citing stronger-than-expected revenue growth, resilient renewals and improving expansion activity.

Altmann said Autodesk delivered 14% constant-currency revenue growth, ahead of BTIG’s 12% estimate. Reported revenue increased 16%, or 14% in constant currency.

Adjusting for the new transaction model and foreign exchange, revenue grew 12%, above BTIG’s 9% estimate. Billings increased 10%, or 12% in constant currency, topping the 8% consensus estimate.

Autodesk also raised its organic fiscal 2027 revenue-growth outlook by about 100 basis points after adjusting for foreign exchange.

Altmann said go-to-market changes remain within management’s expectations, renewals remain strong and early improvement is emerging in expansion activity ahead of a large enterprise business agreement renewal cohort in the second half.

MaintainX is expected to contribute about $60 million in fiscal 2027 revenue and roughly $70 million in billings.

Margins Remain the Main Concern

Autodesk posted a 41% operating margin, beating BTIG’s 39% estimate and expanding about 200 basis points year-over-year. GAAP operating margin reached 29%, above BTIG’s 26% estimate.

However, Altmann called the margin outlook the main sticking point. Autodesk maintained its fiscal 2027 operating-margin framework at roughly 39% and lowered its GAAP margin outlook by about 100 basis points as MaintainX adds costs.

Management expects modest operating-margin expansion in fiscal 2028, although Altmann noted that consensus estimates already largely reflected that improvement.

BTIG maintains its $300 price forecast, based on roughly 20 times estimated fiscal 2028 free cash flow.

ADSK Price Action: Autodesk shares were down 4.51% at $258.39 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo: Shutterstock

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.
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