Judging from the current increase in two-year yields, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole was the most hawkish since 2009, and even surpassed Jay Powell's speech in 2022 and 2023. After Walsh said the 2% PCE inflation target was “firm and fixed,” and that the Federal Reserve still had work to do, the US bond yield rose by about 10 basis points to 4.33% within two hours. Previously, Ben Bernanke had a bigger full-day increase after Jackson Hole's speech in 2009. The swap market is currently betting that the US will raise interest rates several times until July 2027, which may appease long-term bondholders worried about inflation. Although swap market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank may all raise interest rates in September, the dollar has risen against the yen and the euro.

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