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To own Altria, you generally need to believe its U.S. tobacco and smoke free brands can keep generating substantial cash that supports a high dividend, even as cigarette volumes decline and regulation stays intense. The latest dividend increase and Steven Presley’s appointment do not materially change the near term picture: the main catalyst remains execution in smoke free products such as NJOY and on!, while the biggest risk is mounting regulatory and competitive pressure, particularly in e vapor.
The most relevant recent announcement here is the 4.7% hike in the regular quarterly dividend to US$1.11 per share, giving an annualized US$4.44 and a yield of about 6.4% at the time of the news. That move sits alongside ongoing buybacks and signals management’s focus on returning cash to shareholders while it works through operational challenges in e vapor, illicit products and shifting consumer preferences in its core smokable and oral tobacco lines.
Yet beneath the higher dividend, investors should also be aware of growing regulatory risks around e vapor products and enforcement against illicit competitors that could...
Read the full narrative on Altria Group (it's free!)
Altria Group’s narrative projects $20.9 billion revenue and $9.7 billion earnings by 2029. This implies essentially flat yearly revenue and a $1.7 billion earnings increase from $8.0 billion today.
Uncover how Altria Group's forecasts yield a $70.36 fair value, in line with its current price.
At the more pessimistic end, some analysts expected roughly flat revenue near US$20.7 billion and earnings of about US$9.5 billion by 2029, which contrasts sharply with the baseline view and highlights how differently you might weigh illicit e vapor risks and potential FDA actions after this kind of dividend and board news.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Altria Group - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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