Recent performance snapshot for Etsy stock
Etsy (ETSY) has drawn fresh attention after a recent move in its share price, with the stock closing at US$83.59 on 27 August 2026. Investors are weighing this level against the company’s latest return profile.
Over the past day the stock gained 0.8%. The past week shows a 3.2% rise. Over the past month the share price declined 2.3%, while the past 3 months show a 23.1% gain and the 1 year total return is 57.7%.
For Etsy, the recent 3 month share price return of 23.1% sits against a 1 year total shareholder return of 57.7%. This points to positive momentum in the shorter term, even after a weaker 5 year total shareholder return of 62.1%.
Scan the recent momentum in Etsy and compare it with a hand picked group of resilient companies using the 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores as your next filter.
After Etsy stock’s strong 1 year return, the latest move to US$83.59 leaves a key issue on the table. Is there still meaningful upside ahead, or has most of the easy gain already played out in the price?
Most Popular Narrative: 9.5% Overvalued
The most followed valuation narrative puts Etsy's fair value at $76.33, which is below the latest close at $83.59. That gap raises questions about how much optimism is already in the price.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $76.33 for Etsy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $92.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $58.0.
Want to see what is driving that fair value call on Etsy? The narrative leans on specific revenue, earnings and margin paths that could surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $76.33 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Etsy still faces pressure from falling gross merchandise sales and active buyers, as well as rising marketing spend that compresses margins and could undermine the current AI driven optimism.
Find out about the key risks to this Etsy narrative.
Another view on Etsy’s valuation
The analyst narrative tags Etsy as about 9.5% overvalued at $83.59 versus a fair value of $76.33. Our DCF model points in the opposite direction. It indicates the stock trades about 47.3% below an estimated fair value of $158.71, which is a very different message for investors.
That kind of gap between analyst targets and a DCF output raises a simple question. Which set of assumptions do you feel more comfortable leaning on when you frame your own Etsy thesis: the nearer term analyst path or the longer runway embedded in the cash flow model?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Etsy for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 44 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
The split views on Etsy should prompt you to look closer at both the risks investors are worried about and the rewards they are excited about. Take a few minutes to weigh both sides for yourself with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Etsy?
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- Target potential mispricings by checking companies that appear to trade below their estimated worth with the help of the 44 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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