PEXA Group walked into this result with the stock under pressure. The share price closed at A$6.68 on 28 August, down about 38% over three months and 8% over the past month. Short term sentiment has clearly cooled. The earnings story looks very different. PEXA has turned profitable over the last year, delivered group revenue above A$400m and lifted core net profit after tax to A$26.3m.
Today is about that pivot. Near term investors are focused on the red on the screen. Longer term holders are weighing a newly profitable business against a rich 61.2x trailing P/E and what that means for multi year returns.
Is PEXA Group on sale at A$6.68 with a 61.2x P/E and a DCF value of A$7.87, or is that earnings forecast of 18% a year already fully priced in? Compare the market’s expectations with our valuation analysis for PEXA Group
FY26 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (FY26 vs FY25): A$406.9m vs A$379.5m (up 7%)
- Net Income from Continuing Operations (FY26 vs FY25): A$19.2m profit vs A$65.6m loss (returned to profit)
- Basic EPS (Earnings Per Share, FY26 vs FY25): A$0.109 vs loss of A$0.371 (moved from loss per share to earnings per share)
- Core EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation, FY26 vs FY25): A$152.0m vs A$135.7m (up 12% with EBITDA margin at 37.3%)
Prefer clean visuals over scrolling through more tables and earnings commentary? View a full snapshot of PEXA Group, including its valuation and recent profitability trends, in the company report for PEXA Group.
PEXA Bull Case: Profit Milestones Versus Regulatory Overhang
Bulls argue PEXA Group can convert its Australian dominance and new products into a higher quality earnings profile, even while funding U.K. growth. The latest numbers give that view some grounding. Group revenue above A$400m with 7% growth, core EBITDA of A$152.0m and a 37.3% margin, plus core NPAT of A$26.3m and free cash flow of A$93.5m, show the business is now generating real cash, not just headline growth.
In Australia, revenue growth of 8% and market penetration near 90% support the idea that the core exchange still has pricing power and volume resilience. Cost efficiency is another milestone. Expenses rose 4% against 7% revenue growth, helped by a program that delivered about A$19m savings. The U.K. piece of the story is less proven. Technology delivery for NatWest is ahead of schedule, but slower lender adoption and a wider A$41.1m EBITDA loss show the international ramp is still in the investment phase.
Compare whether this new A$400m plus revenue base, 37.3% core EBITDA margin and A$93.5m in free cash flow are enough to shift sentiment, and see if analyst targets are keeping pace with the U.K. investment drag in the consensus price target analysis for PEXA Group.PEXA Bear Case: Profitability Meets Unresolved Structural Risks
The bearish view is that PEXA Group’s strong Australian cash engine cannot offset growing structural risks and long dated investment drag. The latest result does not dismiss that concern. Regulatory risk is now more concrete, with an IPART draft pointing to about a 20% cut to regulated revenue from FY28 and management openly warning this could materially erode future cash flow and reinvestment capacity. That aligns closely with fears about constrained pricing power.
Bears also worry that international and new product investment could weigh on earnings longer than hoped. International EBITDA losses widened to A$41.1m and guidance calls for FY27 group NPAT to decline as Australian volumes soften and growth projects continue. PEXA Clear is live, but management only flags modest FY27 revenue. Slower lender adoption in the U.K. and a capital light but incremental New Zealand pilot mean the key milestone of visible international profit contribution is still missing.
With group profitability arriving while international EBITDA remains in loss and regulated Australian revenue faces potential cuts from FY28, the key question is how robust PEXA Group’s balance sheet really is. Check the detailed solvency, debt and cash runway breakdown in our financial health analysis of PEXA Group stock.Stay Ahead With Simply Wall St
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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