Hedge fund billionaire Daniel Loeb‘s Third Point raised its stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM) by 67% in the second quarter, holding 460,000 shares as of June 30 versus 275,000 at the end of March, according to the firm’s latest 13F filing.
Key Events:
- The company disclosed that July revenue jumped 44.7% year over year to 467.58 billion New Taiwan dollars and rose 5.6% from June. Revenue for the first seven months of 2026 climbed 37% to 2.872 trillion New Taiwan dollars. The company last month also raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to a record $60 billion to $64 billion as strong AI chip demand continues.
- TSMC reported second-quarter net income of NT$706.56 billion ($22 billion), up 77.4% from a year earlier and well above the NT$632.64 billion analysts had expected. Revenue rose to NT$1.27 trillion ($39.45 billion) during the April-June period, topping the consensus estimate of NT$1.264 trillion and increasing 36% from NT$933.79 billion in the same quarter last year.
- The company’s Arizona operations generated about NT$36.1 billion ($1.13 billion) in cumulative profit in the first half of 2026, more than double the NT$16.1 billion ($504.6 million) recorded for all of 2025. The plant reported roughly NT$18.8 billion ($589.2 million) in first-quarter profit, including NT$16.9 billion ($529.66 million) in investment income.
- TSMC said it expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to range between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion. Based on an exchange rate assumption of NT$32 to the U.S. dollar, the company forecast a gross profit margin of 65% to 67% and an operating profit margin of 56% to 58%.
- Taiwan Semiconductor disclosed that it will produce three new chips for Xiaomi Corp. (OTC:XIACF). The deal expands Taiwan Semiconductor’s role in Xiaomi’s semiconductor strategy.
- TSMC raised its 2026 capital budget to $60 billion-$64 billion in July, saying strong demand from AI, high-performance computing and emerging AI agents is driving the need for more capacity.
- The company along with Sony Group Corp. (NYSE:SONY) reportedly plan to invest $6.3 billion in a state-of-the-art image sensor semiconductor plant in Kumamoto, Japan.
TSM Technical Setup: Uptrend Intact, Pullback Near Key SMAs
TSM is in a long-term uptrend but is currently digesting gains: it’s trading about 12.8% above its 200-day SMA ($370.17), while sitting 0.5% below the 20-day SMA ($419.76) and 1.2% below the 50-day SMA ($422.55). That mix usually reads as "bigger trend intact, shorter-term trend still working through a pullback."
Momentum is neutral, with RSI at 48.79—RSI measures how stretched a move is, and this level suggests neither buyers nor sellers have clear control right now. The 20-day SMA being below the 50-day SMA adds to that "cooling" look in the near term, even as the 50-day remains well above the 200-day (a bullish longer-term backdrop).
- Key Resistance: $436.00 — a nearby ceiling where rebounds can stall, and it sits above the cluster of short-term moving averages
- Key Support: $405.50 — a nearby floor that lines up with a recent pivot zone and sits close to the 100-day SMA area ($414.08)
Technology Sector Check: XLK Strength vs Broader Market
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing sits in the Technology sector, tracked by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK), which ranks 2nd of 11 S&P sectors on Monday.
Key Performance Indicators:
- Sector Rank: 2 of 11 sectors (Leading)
- Daily Move: +0.12%
- 1-Month Trend: +4.44% (Outperforming)
- 90-Day Trend: -6.19% (Bearish)
- Stock vs Sector: Underperforming by 0.05 percentage points
- Top Performing Sectors Monday: Energy (XLE), Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) (These are the top 3 performing sectors today, not peers of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)
Sector leadership was concentrated in Energy and Technology, while defensives and rate-sensitive groups lagged, with Utilities and Real Estate among the weakest performers. The split points to a risk-on tilt at the top of the tape, even as broader weakness in Communication Services suggests rotation remains selective rather than uniform.
TSM Earnings Outlook: EPS and Revenue Estimates, Valuation
- EPS Estimate: $4.45 (Up from $2.92 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $45.54 Billion (Up from $33.10 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 31.1x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $552.00. Recent analyst moves include:
Recent analyst moves include:
- Bernstein: Outperform (Raises Target to $554.00) (Aug. 11)
- Needham: Buy (Raises Target to $530.00) (July 27)
- DA Davidson: Buy (Raises Target to $500.00) (July 17)
How TSM Compares With AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, SKHY
This peer comparison uses a curated set of five stocks selected for this analysis: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), SK hynix Inc. (SKHY), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel Corp (INTC). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. gained 82.95% over the past year, trailing the peer-group average return of 238.02% by 155.07 percentage points. After a year in which Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. trailed the peer-group average on 1-year returns, led by Micron Technology, Inc. (+698.58%), Intel Corp (+271.09%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+188.88%).
Within the group, Micron Technology, Inc. was the strongest performer at +698.58%, while SK hynix Inc. was the weakest at +7.24%. The remaining peers were mixed, with Broadcom Inc. up 24.31%, Advanced Micro Devices up 188.88%, and Intel Corp up 271.09%.
TSM Stock Price Today: Monday’s Latest Quote and Move
TSM Stock Price Activity: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were down 0.57% at $415.14 on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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