It's been a good week for Fosun International Limited (HKG:656) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 5.5% to HK$5.56. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of CN¥87b being 2.3% less than what the analysts had been modelling. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Fosun International's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥186.4b in 2026. This would reflect a credible 7.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Fosun International is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.36 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥181.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.31 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Fosun International's future following the latest results, with a substantial gain in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
View our latest analysis for Fosun International
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Fosun International 6.3% to HK$5.91on the back of these upgrades. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Fosun International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$7.00 and the most bearish at HK$4.43 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Fosun International's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Fosun International is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Fosun International's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Fosun International going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Fosun International that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.