The Zhitong Finance App learned that aerospace precision parts giant Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US) closed down 7.51% and fell sharply by 9% in the intraday period, hitting a two-month low, the biggest one-day decline since April 2025. The trigger for the sell-off came from Musk's statement on social networking platform X: SpaceX will independently cast industrial gas turbine blades and guide vanes, pointing directly to the current core bottleneck limiting gas turbine production capacity.
Musk said in a weekend post that SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) are each working to build 100 gigawatts of solar production capacity per year, but natural gas power generation will still be the key support to fill the electricity gap in the next few years. He pointed out that the casting of turbine blades and guide vanes is currently a major obstacle to increasing turbine production, and if SpaceX were to produce these components themselves, the gas turbine could be put into operation up to 18 months earlier — he described it as a “far-reaching game-changer” (a profound game changer).
It was previously reported that SpaceX is building a blade and guide vane foundry in Bastrop, Texas. Musk's statement confirmed the plan's strategic intent at the official level for the first time. The facility is said to serve a planned 20 gigawatt power project, mainly to power an artificial intelligence (AI) data center, and the target is to be completed by the end of 2027.
Howmet is one of the few companies in the world that can cast high-temperature blades and guide vane for industrial gas turbines. Together with Precision Castparts, Consolidated Precision Products, and Doncasters under Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US), it forms this highly concentrated supply pattern. Among them, Howmet is the only listed company, so it has become the most direct emotional outlet for investors about this news.
The gas turbine business has become one of Howmet's fastest-growing segments: the company's gas turbine revenue surged 39% year on year in the first quarter and 25% for the full year of 2025. Strong demand from AI data centers for power that can be quickly deployed has left the supply of turbine components in short supply, supporting Howmet's pricing capacity and stock price performance. SpaceX's entry could theoretically divert Howmet's future orders and weaken the current bargaining advantage brought about by supply shortages.
Faced with the sharp drop in stock prices, Wall Street's major investment banks gave a very different interpretation.
Bernstein clearly believes that the sell-off is excessive. Analyst Douglas Harned wrote in the report: “We believe that SpaceX's announcement poses little risk to Howmet; on the contrary, it sends a positive signal.” The core logic is: SpaceX's move just confirms the tight supply in the turbine blade market, rather than dissatisfaction with Howmet products. Bernstein pointed out that Howmet has signed long-term supply agreements with major industrial gas turbine manufacturers, and some of the contracts will be extended to 2030; the company has already put into operation new production capacity since the second quarter, and it is expected that at least six production expansion plans will be implemented by the fourth quarter, which in total can increase blade production capacity by up to 38% compared to the first quarter of 2025.
Bernstein also questioned whether SpaceX could achieve large-scale mass production within 18 months. “These components need to operate under extreme heat and stress conditions. The technical threshold is extremely high, and rapid mass production is very difficult.” The agency expects that even if SpaceX successfully builds a factory, its production will be mainly for personal use, rather than transforming into a supplier of cast parts for external markets. Furthermore, SpaceX is unlikely to get involved in complex full-process processes such as coatings. Bernstein maintained the “outperforming market” rating and raised the target price sharply from $248 to $328.
Jeffrey, on the other hand, gave a more careful time judgment. Analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimates that the market size of aerospace and industrial gas turbine engine products in 2025 is about US$10 billion. Based on channel surveys, SpaceX's self-produced products are expected to take about four years to enter the market.
Deutsche Bank believes that market concerns are “far from being as scary as they seem on the surface.” The bank said that in theory, SpaceX may still choose to cooperate with existing blade manufacturers such as HowMet or Precision Castparts instead of fully building its own capabilities. Even if it is successfully self-built, it is more likely to be vertically integrated to meet its own electricity needs than to become a commercial supplier to the industry.
Currently, Musk's statement does not disclose key details: it is unknown whether SpaceX is currently directly purchasing HowMet products, how much casting capacity it plans to install, and whether it will sell parts to external turbine manufacturers in the future. These variables will determine the actual financial impact of this incident on Howmet.
From another perspective, SpaceX has invested heavily in the foundry process, further confirming the seriousness of supply bottlenecks in the industry. If SpaceX's capacity expansion ultimately accelerates the increase in overall turbine capacity rather than simply replacing existing supplier shares, the long-term impact on HowMet may be neutral or even positive — especially as AI-driven electricity demand continues to exceed everyone's expectations.
As of Monday's close, Howmet's stock price was around $244.95.