Recent Share Performance And Business Scale
D.R. Horton (DHI) traded around $144.56 at the last close, with the stock slightly higher over the past month but lower over the past 3 months and year to date. The 1 year total return has also declined.
Over the past year, D.R. Horton reported revenue of about US$33.4b and net income of roughly US$3.1b. The business spans multiple regions across the United States and includes homebuilding, rental, financial services and lot development activities.
D.R. Horton’s share price has softened recently, with a 1 day return that declined 1.92% and a 7 day return that declined 2.96%, while the 1 month share price return of 1.05% suggests only modest near term momentum. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return declined 13.68%, even though the 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns of 24.10% and 60.37% show that longer term holders have still seen gains. This pattern suggests that recent moves may reflect changing views on growth prospects or housing market risk rather than a clear shift in the company’s long run story.
Spot opportunities beyond D.R. Horton by scanning a curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (52 results) that may offer a different mix of resilience and growth potential.D.R. Horton’s share price has eased back after a strong multi year run, which invites a simple test. Do recent declines line up with changes in the business, or has sentiment just moved faster than the fundamentals?
Most Popular Narrative: 12.5% Undervalued
The most followed D.R. Horton narrative lines up a fair value of about $165 per share against the recent $144.56 price, which implies a material valuation gap that hinges on specific growth and margin expectations.
D.R. Horton is well positioned to capture ongoing demand from the structural U.S. housing shortage and favorable demographic tailwinds, such as millennial and Gen Z household formation and continued suburban migration, supporting sustainable volume growth and topline revenue over the long term.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what this housing shortage story really assumes for D.R. Horton? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, firmer margins and a future earnings multiple that still bakes in some caution. Curious which of those inputs is doing most of the heavy lifting in the fair value math?
Result: Fair Value of $165.29 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the D.R. Horton story also leans on assumptions that could be tested if affordability pressures persist or if land and lot costs keep rising faster than selling prices.
Find out about the key risks to this D.R. Horton narrative.
Another View On D.R. Horton’s Valuation
The first narrative leans on a fair value of about $165 per share, yet the current P/E of 13.2x tells a slightly different story. D.R. Horton trades above the 12.7x peer average but below the US Consumer Durables average of 14.7x, while the fair ratio sits much higher at 25.1x. That gap suggests either extra valuation risk if the market drifts back toward peers, or potential upside if sentiment ever moves closer to the fair ratio. Which direction appears more realistic for this stock?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If the mixed signals around D.R. Horton leave you unsure, now is a good time to review the facts yourself and stress test your thesis. To see which positives investors are focusing on and how they balance against the risks, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards.
Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond D.R. Horton?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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