The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the deep adjustments in the two-wheeler industry are nearing completion, the probability of a profit bottom is already evident, and mergers, acquisitions and restructuring have begun a new stage of industry integration. 2026H1 domestic electric two-wheeler sales declined year on year due to the triple impact of high base overdrafts, the pain of switching to the new national standard, and the decline in national supplements. Domestic sales are expected to fall 5%-8% year-on-year throughout the year, and demand is expected to recover after the 2027 adaptation period. CR3 in the industry remains high, the share of new forces continues to rise, and electric motorcycles have become the core growth engine. The profits of the six listed companies generally declined, but Q2 already showed an inflection point, and the repair slope showed new forces > leaders > second tier.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
The total volume of the industry is declining, and short-term repairs are limited. The inflection point of demand is 2027
Domestic sales of 2026H1 electric two-wheelers were 28.252 million units, -12.6% year-on-year. The industry weakened due to three factors: overdrafts in early national supplement demand, rising costs of implementing new national standards, and declining national supplements. Q1 was the bottom of the adjustment, and the decline in Q2 narrowed. The July-September peak season combined with a low base is an important verification window. Systematic recovery of the industry will have to wait until the end of the 2027 adaptation period for the new national standard.
The competitive landscape is markedly divided, new forces are seizing shares, and electric motorcycles have become the core growth circuit
CR3 maintained a high position of 58.1%, and the final brands cleared at an accelerated pace. Yadi has shown the resilience of leading companies, and Emma's revenue pressure is high; new forces such as No. 9, Maverick, and Extreme Nuclear have bucked the trend and are the only source of net share growth; second-tier brands have generally shrunk. Traditional leaders adopt a strategy of reducing volume and increasing prices; new forces exchange price for volume; the trend of “rotating motorcycles” products is clear, and electric motorcycles are growing rapidly; new forces are rapidly expanding stores, but the output of single stores is being diluted.
Overall profit was under pressure. There was an inflection point in Q2, and the quality of corporate profits was clearly differentiated
The net profit of all six listed companies declined. Q1 was the bottom of profit, and the recovery slope in Q2 showed new forces > leaders > second tier. Bicycle profits are divided into three categories: loss of gross profit of new forces, rigid dilution of corporate expenses, and strong and weak cost transmission capacity. Cash flow in the industry has generally deteriorated, and Emma's negative cash flow is worth being wary of; most companies have accumulated reserves, and some companies' accounts receivable have risen. Yadi's acquisition of Golden Arrow marks the entry into an era of multi-brand matrix competition. 2027 is expected to usher in a triple catalyst of demand restoration, electric motorcycle upgrades, and overseas sales.
Investment advice
The profit bottom of the industry is basically established. Focus on the Q3 peak season and recommend Company No. 9, Maverick, Yadi Holdings, and Emma Technology. The No. 9 intelligent barrier is remarkable, and gross margin is expected to improve; Maverick's main business had a profit and loss balance, and there is an opportunity for performance reversal after the scooter inventory was cleared; Yadi's lead had an outstanding advantage, improving the matrix and benefiting from clearing the industry; Emma has a strong channel base and is looking forward to profit recovery in the second half of the year.
Risk warning: risk of domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations; risk of industry price war exacerbating risk; risk of rising raw material costs; risk of overseas business expansion falling short of expectations