On September 1, due to the US military's reattack on the Iranian islands over the weekend, the geography heated up again, crude oil surged, and expectations of the strait blockade continued. Expectations of geographical easing last week were destroyed. Ethylene glycol rebounded sharply for two consecutive days. On September 1, EG2610, the main contract for ethylene glycol futures, fell slightly, rising more than 6%. On the supply side, there are many short-term maintenance of coal chemical plants, but oil chemical plants are gradually returning, and domestic load is gradually picking up. On the import side, only a few installations in the Middle East remain in operation. Short-term geographically, the return of imports is uncertain. The demand side is currently maintaining a weak load, and negative feedback is further deepening under pressure from profits and lack of raw materials. Overall, the supply and demand pattern is gradually weakening. Short-term imports are still low. Port inventories are expected to continue to be low, but the extent of social inventory removal is expected to begin to narrow. Looking at the long term, the long-term pattern is gradually weakening due to deepening negative feedback from downstream, the return of supply, and continuing disturbances in import expectations, and there is pressure to start production in the past month. Currently, valuations are too high. Strategically, focus on TA-EG price spreads as opportunities to expand when they fall; bulls recommend buying put options for protection to prevent sudden geographical cooling.

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