Inventiva (ENXTPA:IVA) shares are in focus after the company appointed Chris Benecchi as Chief Operating Officer, a move tied to preparations related to late stage milestones for its lead MASH candidate, lanifibranor.
Against this backdrop, Inventiva’s share price has moved to €4.07, with a 30 day share price return of 7.11% and a 90 day share price return of 20.06%, while the 1 year total shareholder return declined 9.56%. This suggests improving short term momentum after a weaker year for holders.
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Inventiva is working to turn a late-stage MASH pipeline into a real commercial business, and the recent COO hire points firmly in that direction. After the share price move, is that ambition already fully reflected in today’s valuation?
Most Popular Narrative: 59.7% Undervalued
At a last close of €4.07 against a most followed fair value estimate of about €10.09, the current Inventiva share price sits well below that narrative view, which puts a lot of weight on what lanifibranor could do for the business.
The ongoing Phase III clinical trial for lanifibranor in MASH is anticipated to complete patient recruitment in the first half of 2025, with top-line results expected in the second half of 2026. This positions lanifibranor potentially as the second oral drug approved for MASH in the United States, which could significantly increase revenue.
Want to understand why this fair value sits so far above €4.07? The narrative leans on very rapid revenue expansion, a sharp swing in margins and a premium future earnings multiple usually reserved for rare growth stories.
Result: Fair Value of €10.09 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the story around Inventiva also hinges on continued losses and heavy reliance on lanifibranor, while auditor going concern comments keep funding risk firmly in view.
Find out about the key risks to this Inventiva narrative.
Next Steps
With both risks and rewards in play around Inventiva, it may be helpful to review the details promptly. You can compare the potential upside with the key concerns by reviewing the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs.
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