Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
AnaptysBio typically reports earnings before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the initial market reaction while Day +1 reflects follow-through trading.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | -$2.34 (-3.45%) | $5.84 (8.61%) | -$2.89 (-4.41%) | $7.25 (11.06%) |
| 2026-03-03 | -$1.39 (-3.79%) | $1.37 (3.75%) | +$5.15 (+14.61%) | $5.68 (16.12%) |
| 2025-11-04 | -$0.87 (-3.61%) | $1.27 (5.27%) | +$0.84 (+3.63%) | $3.71 (16.03%) |
| 2025-08-06 | -$0.77 (-4.85%) | $1.02 (6.48%) | -$1.45 (-9.63%) | $2.27 (15.13%) |
| 2025-05-05 | -$0.31 (-2.17%) | $0.55 (3.92%) | -$0.41 (-2.94%) | $1.05 (7.62%) |
| 2025-02-27 | -$0.40 (-3.53%) | $0.79 (7.00%) | +$0.28 (+2.56%) | $2.48 (22.68%) |
| 2024-11-05 | -$0.04 (-0.30%) | $0.62 (4.66%) | +$1.55 (+11.72%) | $1.40 (10.56%) |
| 2024-08-05 | -$0.26 (-1.19%) | $1.09 (4.98%) | -$0.19 (-0.90%) | $1.32 (6.12%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.86% | 5.58% | 6.30% | 13.16% |
Historical price behavior around ANAB earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 6.30% and an average Day +1 range of 13.16%. The most recent report on May 12, 2026, triggered a -4.41% decline the following day with an 11.06% intraday range, reflecting investor disappointment with the earnings miss. However, the March 3, 2026 report—which delivered a strong beat—produced a +14.61% surge with a 16.12% range, demonstrating the stock's capacity for sharp upside moves on positive surprises.
The data reveals asymmetric risk: while Day 0 moves average just 2.86%, Day +1 moves are more than twice as large at 6.30%, suggesting initial reactions often intensify as investors digest the full implications of results and management commentary. The 13.16% average Day +1 range indicates substantial intraday volatility regardless of direction, creating both opportunity and risk for position holders through the announcement.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 09/18/26 (DTE 17) |
| Expected Move | $6.42 (11.64%) |
| Expected Range | $48.70 to $61.54 |
| Implied Volatility | 62.90% |
The options market is pricing an 11.64% expected move for the September 18 expiration, significantly higher than the 6.30% average historical Day +1 move. This elevated implied volatility of 62.90% suggests options traders are anticipating a larger-than-typical reaction, possibly reflecting uncertainty following last quarter's dramatic miss and the wide range of analyst estimates for this report.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on AnaptysBio remains overwhelmingly bullish despite recent earnings volatility. The consensus rating stands at 4.83 out of 5.0, with 11 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 1 Hold, and no Sell ratings among the 12 analysts covering the stock. This near-unanimous bullish stance reflects confidence in the company's pipeline potential and long-term value proposition.
The average price target of $86.64 implies 56.7% upside from the current price of $55.28, with individual targets ranging from a low of $70.00 to a high of $140.00. The wide target range—spanning $70—underscores differing views on the timeline and probability of clinical and commercial success, but even the most conservative target suggests meaningful appreciation potential.
Sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, indicating analysts have maintained their conviction despite the Q1 disappointment. The stability in ratings suggests the analyst community views last quarter's miss as an anomaly rather than a fundamental deterioration in the investment thesis, with the focus remaining on pipeline advancement and long-term value creation rather than near-term earnings precision.
Part 4: Technical Picture
AnaptysBio enters earnings with a deteriorating technical picture. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a Buy signal at 8%, down sharply from 40% one week ago and 24% one month ago, indicating rapid momentum loss heading into the report.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Bearish signal indicates near-term momentum has turned negative, suggesting recent price action favors sellers
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests the intermediate trend remains constructive despite short-term weakness
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects a positive longer-term trajectory supported by the stock's position well above its 200-day moving average
The trend is characterized as Weak and Weakening, reflecting deteriorating momentum across shorter timeframes even as the longer-term structure remains intact.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $56.78 | 50-Day MA | $58.33 |
| 10-Day MA | $57.44 | 100-Day MA | $57.90 |
| 20-Day MA | $57.21 | 200-Day MA | $45.93 |
The stock is trading at $55.28, below all short- and intermediate-term moving averages—the 5-day ($56.78), 10-day ($57.44), 20-day ($57.21), 50-day ($58.33), and 100-day ($57.90)—but remains well above the 200-day moving average at $45.93. This configuration suggests recent consolidation and profit-taking after earlier gains, with the 200-day average providing long-term support. The weakening momentum and position below all near-term averages creates a cautious setup heading into earnings, where a positive surprise would need to overcome technical resistance while a disappointment could accelerate the recent decline toward the $48.70 lower end of the options-implied range.