Last week saw the newest half-yearly earnings release from Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited (HKG:9922), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CN¥2.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 25% to hit CN¥0.06 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Jiumaojiu International Holdings after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Jiumaojiu International Holdings' twelve analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CN¥4.85b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 117% to CN¥0.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥5.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.13 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Jiumaojiu International Holdings
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$2.41, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Jiumaojiu International Holdings' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Jiumaojiu International Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$5.80 and the most bearish at HK$1.31 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.9% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Jiumaojiu International Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$2.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jiumaojiu International Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jiumaojiu International Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jiumaojiu International Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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