Leading cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez retracted their earlier forecast on Tuesday that Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) would hit $15, citing changes in the coin’s technical structure.
Why the Thesis Got Invalidated
Martinez said on X that the thesis was built on a multi-year rising parallel channel that “accurately defined” DOGE’s price action since inception.
They noted that every touch of the channel’s lower boundary had marked a “generational buying opportunity,” delivering gains of 9,221% in 2017 and 30,694% in 2020.
‘Markets Evolve’
When Dogecoin returned to that same support in February, Martinez believed that the technical structure indicated the possibility of another “historic bull run,” with $15 as the target.
“But markets evolve,” they added. “Dogecoin has now broken below the lower boundary of the channel, invalidating the setup and removing the technical foundation behind the $15 thesis.”
To put this in perspective, Dogecoin has never even reached $1. Hitting $15 from current levels would mean an upside of roughly 18,343%.
Martinez acknowledged an X user’s disappointment over the invalidated thesis, floating $1 as a possible remaining price target.
Watch Out For These Signals
DOGE is down about 30% year-to-date, though it staged a sharp rebound in the second half of August along with the broader market.
Interest among derivatives traders has also intensified, with open interest in DOGE futures surging 16.50% in a month, according to Coinglass.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, which compares the 12-period and the 26-period exponential moving averages, flashed a “Sell” signal for DOGE, according to TradingView.
The Bull Bear Power indicator, which measures the strength of buyers and sellers, remained “Neutral,” and so did the Relative Strength Index.
Price Action: At the time of writing, DOGE was exchanging hands at $0.08133, down 1.82% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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