China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that the recent rise in US bond interest rates is mainly contributed by maturity premiums, which reflect changes in liquidity and fiscal risk premiums in the supply and demand of US long-term bonds. Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's speech at the global central bank's annual meeting was generally hawkish. The previous vague wording was corrected, which helped improve the credibility of the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, market expectations for the September interest rate hike are heating up rapidly. Whether the current upward trend in US bond interest rates can reach an inflection point is mainly to observe whether there will be new statements at the policy level/progress between the US and Iran, inflation data for mid-September, and the September interest rate meeting. 1) If the inflation data released on Friday exceeds expectations or falls less rapidly than expected, expectations of interest rate hikes may heat up further. At that time, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve follows the market to raise interest rates in September or the Fed does not raise interest rates, it will have the effect of falling on the market, which is expected to lead to a decline in interest rates on US bonds. 2) If inflation falls further, or if there is significant positive progress between the US and Iran, expectations of interest rate hikes will ease and lead to a decline in interest rates on US bonds. 3) If interest rates on treasury bonds soar further, then the probability that the Ministry of Finance will intervene will further increase, and at the same time, it will also attract funds to buy some long-term bonds. As far as the market is concerned, interest rates on US bonds have recently risen, the US dollar has strengthened, non-US currencies are under pressure, and the stock market is under phased pressure; gold is under relative pressure in the short term, suppressed by the dual logic of tightening liquidity expectations and US dollar credit repair. However, in the medium to long term, once interest rates on long-term bonds rise and then fall back, it will help the stock market recover in the medium term after falling.

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