Key Points
With newly acquired SkyWater in the fold, IonQ could total around $900 million in revenue this year.
IonQ's valuation will look cheaper relative to that boosted revenue, but don't assume the stock will rise.
The company still faces various questions around its acquisitions, financials, and competitive standing.
Owning IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has been rather jarring, given how much the share price has bounced around over the past year. Shares are trading near $39, valuing the stock at roughly $15 billion. The stock has traded as high as $84 over the past 12 months.
But those looking for IonQ stock to rally to new all-time highs might not want to hold their breath. Here's why I believe IonQ will still be trading at around the same price in one year that it is today.
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It looks like the stock should be rising
To be clear, IonQ is doing some good things. The company reported $80.1 million in revenue in the second quarter of 2026, a whopping 287% increase versus a year ago. That's impressive growth, even if it's on top of a small number.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Additionally, IonQ recently acquired SkyWater, a chip foundry that generated $317.1 million in revenue through the first half of 2026, for $1.8 billion in cash and stock.
Management is guiding for full-year revenue of $280 million to $290 million. On top of that, SkyWater could do about $600 million this year if it performs the same over the second half of 2026. Hypothetically, that could put IonQ at about $900 million in total revenue this year.
The stock currently trades at about 57 times its trailing-12-month revenue. If you use that $900 million figure, the forward valuation drops way down to about 16 to 17 times sales, and IonQ suddenly looks dramatically cheaper.
So then, why the skepticism?
Simply put, IonQ remains an unprofitable business with a ton of unanswered questions.
IonQ reported a $254.7 million operating loss through six months of 2026. SkyWater fared better, posting an operating loss of just $3.3 million. Still, that business had a gross profit margin of only about 21%. It's unclear how much SkyWater can actually contribute to IonQ's bottom line in the near future.
Meanwhile, IonQ's share count is soaring. The SkyWater acquisition added approximately 24 million new shares, and the company is issuing gobs of stock-based compensation -- about $450 million over the past year alone.
The quantum computing field is still just getting started. It's too soon to know where IonQ will ultimately stand among its peers. And since IonQ has made a handful of acquisitions over the past few years, it's going to be trying to establish itself in a breakthrough industry while juggling the headaches of integrating all of these different businesses.
Add it all up, and there are several reasons to hesitate before paying up to own IonQ stock.
That could be why the stock has struggled to gain traction lately, despite the SkyWater deal. I think there's a reasonable chance that IonQ needs more time to sort all of these moving parts and establish greater trust with investors. Until then, the stock may stay near its current level.
Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.