According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market is showing early signs of a cycle reversal. The core driving force stems from a significant divergence in chip allocation between large holders and retail investors. On-chain data reveals that although retail investors continue to sell, institutional buyers are actively accepting it. This structural change provides key support for the market to emerge from a long-term decline.
The restoration of technical indicators further validates this trend. After being in a negative range for eight consecutive months, CryptoQuant's cyclical momentum indicator recently climbed back above zero. The current reading is around 0.4. The indicator is generated by comparing the profit and loss index to its 365-day moving average. Analyst Gaah pointed out that although this indicates an increase in the probability of breaking the downtrend, it is confirmed that the indicator will need to rise further to the 20-30 range during the price recovery process in the next few weeks for an effective reversal.
The segmented data on the position structure is more intuitive. According to Woofun AI, between August 1 and August 30, giant whale wallets holding more than 100 BTC increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC, amounting to 4.7 billion US dollars at the time of about 78,000 US dollars.
Meanwhile, mid-sized holders holding 1 to 100 BTC reduced their positions by about 33,000, while retail investors holding less than 1 BTC sold nearly 14,000. This “giant whale draws money and retail investors leave the market” model, along with Bitcoin's performance of breaking through the $62,000-$65,000 shock range on August 19 and then rising to $81,000, confirms that demand is digesting supply.
However, short-term risks remain. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC reserves on the Binance platform have risen to around 687,000, the highest level since 2026.
Although high reserves may raise concerns about selling pressure, this is more likely to reflect changes in fund custody, collateral requirements, or trading activities rather than simply disbursement. Against the backdrop of institutional investors re-entering the market and strong ETF capital inflows, the increase in spot demand is forming a synergy with institutional capital, driving the continued deepening of on-chain fund-raising activities.