U.S. stock futures are slightly mixed early Thursday as Wall Street processes a resurgence in Middle East volatility, political clashes over the Strait of Hormuz, and critical upcoming labor market data.
The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bearish for the Sept. 3 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 3?” contract currently reflects a 41% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are confronting a volatile geopolitical environment alongside crucial incoming economic indicators and corporate earnings:
- Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a mixed open. At the last check, Dow Jones futures advanced 0.07%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.05%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.11%, and Russell 2000 futures slipped 0.08%.
- Geopolitics & Energy: President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. will “hit them hard” after Iran launched missiles at U.S. air bases in Jordan. This attack followed a U.S. strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island. Trump also sparked domestic backlash by suggesting the Strait of Hormuz be renamed to “TRUMP STRAIT.” Senator Bernie Sanders criticized the move, calling Trump a “mad king” and pointing out that the conflict has raised diesel prices to $5.69 a gallon and gas prices to $4.12 a gallon. Despite the renewed tensions, crude prices retreated; Brent crude futures fell 0.85% to $94.82 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.69% to $90.38 a barrel.
- Economic Data: Traders are anticipating crucial data ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Thursday’s docket includes initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 29, July’s U.S. trade balance, and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at 8:30 a.m. ET. This will be followed by August’s flash S&P U.S. services PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and the ISM services PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Earnings Docket: Thursday’s earnings schedule includes major reports from Ciena Corp. (NYSE:CIEN), Zscaler Inc. (NASDAQ:ZS), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU), UiPath Inc. (NYSE:PATH), and Campbell’s Co. (NASDAQ:CPB).
The Bull Case and Market Outlook
Despite the escalating geopolitical noise, market fundamentals remain remarkably resilient. President Trump expressed confidence that the “stock market will go up,” noting that it keeps hitting new records every day despite the ongoing war in Iran.
Furthermore, tech analyst Luke Lango highlighted that the earnings-price gap is the widest signal he tracks right now and that gap is not a reason to doubt the fundamentals.
According to him, a liquidity mechanism that operates independently of earnings is suppressed. “When that mechanism reverses — whether through an Iran resolution, a Fed pivot, or simply time as the current shocks work through the system — the gap between 52% earnings growth and a flat stock market should close through price, not through earnings deteriorating. That is the trade we are positioned for,” he added.
How the Previous Bet Played Out
The Sept. 2 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $118,612 in total trading volume.
On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. The SPY was up 0.77% to $765.16, while the QQQ advanced by 0.23% to $709.24. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.54% higher at $530.62.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.