• UBP flagged joint US-Japan yen intervention as a short-term deterrent, warning lasting support needs a narrower US-Japan rate gap.
• Carry trades still favor the dollar, with Japan’s 1% policy rate leaving a 275-bps gap versus the US at 3.75%.
• BoJ seen hawkish but constrained by cooling inflation, fragile demand, negative real rates, limiting scope for rapid tightening.
• UBP projected one more 25-bp hike by October 2026, with a possible additional move in 2027; terminal rate seen at 1.25%-1.5%.
• 10-year JGB yields expected to hold 2.5%-3% through H2 2026 and H1 2027, supporting financial stocks if tightening stays orderly.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Union Bancaire Privee UBP SA published the original content used to generate this news brief on September 02, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.