According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has stabilized above the $77,500 key support level for more than a week, and the market is currently at a sensitive point in a long and short game. The daily chart shows that $75,880 forms an important line of defense for the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, while $81,480 is a high resistance that has not been reconquered recently.
Although the overall pattern is bullish, the price's performance above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages reflects more of a temporary standstill in momentum rather than a substantial breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from a high level to 66.7. Although it is still above the critical value of 60, it suggests that the upward momentum is bottlenecked below the resistance level. The market conditions required to maintain support and break through resistance are quite different: the former relies on a natural decline in selling pressure, while the latter requires buyers to show a continued willingness to increase their holdings at higher prices.
Currently, the market is awaiting more definitive signals to confirm the results of this critical test.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that judging from the combination of holder behavior and technical aspects, CryptoQuant's data revealed structural changes in potential selling pressure. The price of Bitcoin has stabilized above the ETF related regions and the cost reference zone for short-term holders, which means that short-term investors and ETF participants are no longer in the sensitive price range of 'rebound and unpack'. When the price is near the recent average buyers' entry price, any rebound could trigger a wave of sell-offs aimed at recovering the principal; once the price remains above this level, the momentum for such passive selling will weaken significantly.
However, the risk of a profitable settlement still exists, and the core variable is whether there is a new inflow of capital to offset potential selling pressure. Despite some signs of fresh buying, the evidence is insufficient. According to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $236.5 million on September 1, which was later converted to a net inflow of $101.1 million on September 2.
Although this net inflow temporarily curbed the previous day's sell-off, it was far from enough to completely offset the previous selling pressure, let alone form a continuous buying trend. Bitcoin will need more trading days to accumulate demand before ETF funds can reach a steady inflow before it can break through the $81,500 mark. The next key confirmation signal will be that the Coinbase (COIN.US) premium indicator will turn positive and be maintained, while net capital inflows to the exchange will not be significantly concentrated. If the premium continues, it indicates that the Coinbase (COIN.US) dollar market is better than Binance's USDT market; conversely, if there is a large inflow of capital to the exchange, it may indicate that holders are preparing to sell off in the midst of a rebound. On September 3, Bitcoin traded at around $77,900 on the CoinGlass platform. The platform showed that the total value of open contracts was close to $53 billion, and the 24-hour futures trading volume was as high as $67 billion, while the spot market volume was only about $4 billion.
This huge difference in leverage and spot trading volume explains why once prices break through the current range, they may rapidly accelerate changes. Coindoo's analysis of spot demand for old currencies also supports this: as new purchases continue to absorb existing supply, the momentum for price increases will be even stronger. By monitoring real-time financing rates, clearing data, and price trends, traders can determine whether the market is forming a steady upward trend or accumulating leveraged positions that may be forced to close in the future.
Looking back at the key support levels, the importance of $69,600, which both corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and closely coincides with the 200-day moving average of around $69,550. Although Bitcoin has successfully held the first line of defense, this is only the starting point of the market. Currently, whether it can continue to stand above $81,500 depends fundamentally on the strength of demand in the spot market. A real breakthrough can only be established when spot buying is sufficient to absorb profitable settlement chips without relying on leveraged selling pressure.