[Anatomy Dashboard]
Hong Kong stocks jumped high today, spurred by overnight gains in US stocks, but then accelerated their downward slide, closing down 0.39%.
This conflict in the Middle East did not stop because the US suspended air strikes. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have attacked many US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Iraq with missiles and drones, causing “the deaths of many US personnel.” Oil prices have risen again. The latest WTI crude oil futures price rose 2.06% to 92.881 US dollars/barrel, and previously fell more than 1%; Brent crude oil futures rose 1.83% to 97.381 US dollars/barrel. Although the US and Venezuela have signed a number of oil cooperation agreements, and Chevron announced an investment of 7 billion US dollars over the next five years, with the goal of doubling production to 600,000 b/d after 2028, it is difficult to lower oil prices in the face of war, and the market is worried that the US will launch another round of air strikes.
Today's intraday market mainly affected Hong Kong stocks by a sharp appreciation in the yen exchange rate. At one point, the US dollar reached around 156.40 against the yen, an increase of 1.46%. It actually rose quite a bit yesterday; today there is an acceleration because the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates. Because the yen appreciates a little bit, it will cause capital to flow back to Japan. Bank stocks fell across the board today, and the Agricultural Bank (01288) fell by 2.81%. This is quite a big margin. Fortunately, insurance stocks have risen to the top today; otherwise, the general market will fall unsightly.
With the disclosure of the 2026 semi-annual performance reports of the five major A-share listed insurers, all dividend plans that have attracted investors' attention have also been released. China People's Insurance, China Life Insurance, China Peace Insurance, China Taibao, and Xinhua Insurance have all announced mid-term dividend plans for 2026, with a total proposed total of over 39 billion yuan. This year, China Taibao announced the implementation of mid-term dividends for the first time, marking the first time that five A-share listed insurers have achieved a “collective” mid-term dividend. The management of various insurance companies has stated that they will work to establish a normalized dividend mechanism to support long-term sustainable shareholder returns through steady management. Good performers include Xinhua Insurance (01336), People's Insurance (01339), and Ping An of China (02318), which increased by more than 2%.
The number of ADP jobs in the US for August, which was announced on Wednesday, increased by only 38,000, far below the forecast of 47,000, and hit a new low during the year. After the data was released, CME data showed that the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in September rose from 33.8% before publication to 37.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points fell from 66.2% to 62.3%. Also, on September 2, the Bank of the Netherlands officially announced that it will complete the rearrangement of 86 tons of gold reserves from March to August and transfer gold stored in New York and Ottawa to London, with the aim of strengthening crisis response capabilities and improving the liquidity of reserve assets in a geographically turbulent environment. The reflection behind this is a careful consideration of the turbulent situation: once the US and Europe have bad relations, there is a risk that assets in the US will be restricted from being shipped out of the warehouse and restricted from trading; secondly, gold is in London and can be easily converted into foreign exchange at any time. Spot gold rebounded out of a V-shaped rebound to 4,400 US dollars, and COMEX gold futures rose more than 1%. Wanguo Gold Group (03939) and Zijin Gold International (02259) rose more than 7%, while Chifeng Gold (06693) and Lingbao Gold (03330) rose more than 5%.
Non-ferrous metals are generally linked to gold. For example, copper is simultaneously connected to power grids, new energy vehicles, energy storage, new energy power generation, data centers, AI servers, and industrial automation, and the mine development cycle is also very long. When demand continues to increase and supply cannot keep up with the pace of expansion, market transactions are no longer breaking news, but a medium- to long-term supply and demand gap. Minmetals Resources (01208) rose more than 5%, while Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) and China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose more than 3%. Aluminum's logic is similar. Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) and Innovative Industries (02788) both rose by more than 3%.
On September 2, BDI surged 174 points in a single day, or 5.5%, to 3,331 points, a record high since December 2023. The main reason is the centralized shipment of iron ore (increase in Ximandou iron ore), coal, and grain trade, which brought about a large number of new shipping pallets. The relevant beneficiaries, Dexiang Shipping (02510), rose by nearly 7%, and Pacific Shipping (02343) rose by more than 5%; while oil transportation is a long-term reality, lengthening the range and passive contraction of equivalent capacity are a long-term reality. Supply side: There are few new ship deliveries, VLCC handheld orders account for a low proportion of the current fleet. Capacity investment in the next 1-2 years will be limited.. COSCO Haineng (01138) rose more than 6%. Dongfang Overseas International (00316) rose more than 3%.
Pharmaceutical stocks have continued recently. Today, he reached a licensing agreement with GlaxoSmithKline for HMPL-A830, with a down payment of US$110 million, development registration and commercialization milestone payments of up to US$1,295 million, and royalty fees calculated on net sales; GlaxoSmithKline holds all rights outside of Greater China, and Hehuang reserves domestic rights. The drug is the world's first KRAS-EGFR antibody-targeted conjugate drug. Clinical development is expected to begin in the second half of 2026. KRAS is one of the popular targets in the field of oncology, but it is also important to pay attention to future clinical human data; there is also a risk of failure. Today it surged more than 14%. Similar to the promising Sinopharm Group (01093) and Yingen Bio-B (09606), rose more than 4%.
The innovative GPC3 antibody drug conjugate (ADC) TQB6426, independently developed by Zhengda Tianqing, the core company of China Biopharmaceutical (01177), recently obtained a default clinical trial license from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and is intended for treatment of advanced malignant tumors. In addition to obtaining clinical trial approval in China in July, TQB6426 has now obtained clinical entry qualifications for the two core pharmaceutical markets in China and the US. Later, we will focus on clinical data. Today, it has risen by more than 6%. AI pharmaceutical products were also stimulated, and Insili Intelligence (03696) increased by more than 4%.
Tesla will officially unveil its self-driving taxi Cybercab this Thursday. The announcement is expected to mark Tesla's major breakthrough in the business to catch up with its competitor Waymo. The direction of stimulation is lidar (domestic). On September 2, the “China Smart Tier1 Industry Alliance” was formally established, which was jointly initiated by Xingyuanzhi and ingenious hands to form more than 20 industrial chain enterprises including Obi Zhongguang, Faao Robotics, Fulai New Materials, and Hesai-W (02525). Alliance members cover key aspects such as empowered brains, dexterous hands, voice interaction, lidar, visual perception, tactile perception, robotic arms, chassis, wireless communication, and thermal management. The purpose of the alliance is to solve problems such as inconsistent hardware interfaces and push the industry from a single point of leadership to system leadership. Hesai-W (02525) Company's ADAS lidar shipments increased 87% year on year and robot lidar shipments increased 165% year on year in the first half of 2026; the SGI business contributed revenue for the first time, and the company raised the 2026 SGI revenue guide from 100 million yuan to 200 million yuan to 300 million yuan, up more than 8% today. Next is Wire-controlled Nexteer (01316): According to the latest data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, BlackRock increased its holdings by 2.483 million shares on August 27, at a price of HK$5.0735 per share, for a total amount of about HK$12.5975 million. After the increase in holdings, the latest number of shares held was approximately 152 million shares, and the latest shareholding ratio was 6.08%. Today's increase is over 3%.
[Section Focus]
According to Guojin Home Appliance Research Report, the current market differences over white electricity mainly focus on the pace of demand recovery and the impact of rising copper and aluminum prices on profits. Demand side: High base pressure has been reduced, and the economy is expected to recover quarterly in the second half of the year. 26H1 Home Appliance Company had a zero year-on-year ratio of -9.5%, mainly affected by last year's national supplementary base. According to historical seasonal structure estimates, 26H2 appliances are expected to be +7.7% year over year, -2.8% and +18.2% in Q3 and Q4 respectively, showing a trend of narrowing in the decline and significant restoration in the fourth quarter. By category, domestic and foreign sales of air conditioners are expected to improve, and export sales of ice washing will continue to grow. Cost side: The stage where pressure is concentrated may have passed, and there is a foundation for profit recovery. The average price of copper and aluminum in 26Q2 was +40.0% and +45.9%, respectively, but recently the month-on-month increase in copper prices has slowed and aluminum prices have declined somewhat. Looking ahead, the penetration rate of household air conditioning in Europe is only about 23%. The total share of major Chinese brands in Western Europe is less than 20%, and there is room for increase in demand penetration and brand share. As base pressure eased in the second half of the year and the year-on-year increase in raw materials declined, the direction of improving sector operations gradually became clear; superimposed institutional positions were at a historically low level, and Baidian is expected to usher in a simultaneous recovery in performance and valuation.
Major Hong Kong stocks: Midea Group (00300), Hisense Home Appliances (00921), Haier Smart Home (06690).
[Individual Stock Mining]
China Nonferrous Mining (01258): Successfully completed the goal of doubling its own copper production capacity by obtaining financing from convertible bonds
The company completed the issuance of zero-interest convertible bonds with a total principal amount of US$300 million and due in 2031 on September 2. The batch of convertible bonds was officially listed and traded on the Stock Exchange on September 3. The initial conversion price was HK$22.18 per share, a 29% premium over the closing price before the issue date. The company's profit due to shareholders in the first half of the year was US$434 million, up 64.68% year on year, gross margin increased from 32.6% to 42.4%, and net operating cash increased 98.3% year on year.
Comment: The company successfully obtained financing, and there was no interest, which greatly improved financial data. Even with subsequent stock transfers, dilution is limited, and the dilution margin is small. All of the capital raised by the company will be used for the construction of the Luanxia No. 28 shaft sulphide mine project in Zambia. The total investment of the project is about 530 million US dollars. It is one of the company's core production expansion projects during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period.
The company's performance in the first half of the year was impressive, reaching a record high, mainly due to rising copper and sulfuric acid prices. The unit sales price of 2026H1, crude copper and anode copper was 1,1932 US dollars/ton, up 36.0% year on year; the unit sales price of cathode copper was 11993 US dollars/ton, up 38.3% year on year; sales unit price of sulfuric acid was 370 US dollars/ton, up 64.4% year on year. The sharp rise in the price of core products led to a gross profit increase of about US$959 million, an increase of 68.12% over the previous year. Among them, due to rising copper prices, the cost of outsourced copper concentrate increased year-on-year, and the sales cost per ton of crude copper and anode copper increased to 8888 US dollars/ton (+24.8% YoY); the sales cost of a single ton of cathode copper was 4,964 US dollars/ton (+5.6% YoY), mainly due to the increase in outsourced mine costs; and the sales cost per ton of sulfuric acid sales was 68 US dollars/ton (-19.1% YoY).
The target for its own copper production capacity is doubled. The company's own mine copper production is currently about 140,000 to 150,000 tons, and the target is to reach around 300,000 tons by 2030. The company's medium- to long-term copper production capacity is expected to increase by 193,000 tons. By project, the Luanxia New Mine shallow project is expected to be put into operation in 2027, with an additional copper production capacity of about 12,000 tons; the Gangbov Mining Msesa ore body is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2028, adding about 15,000 tons of copper production capacity; the Luanxia New Mine Deep Project, the Qianxi Wet Samba Copper Mine and Benkara Project are expected to be put into operation in 2029, contributing a total increase of about 108,000 tons of copper production capacity; the second phase of the southeast Africa ore body is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2030, adding about 12,000 tons of copper production capacity; the south-east Africa mine is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2030, adding about 12,000 tons of copper production capacity; Phase III is expected to be put into operation after 2032, with new additions after delivery The copper production capacity is about 46,000 tons.
The projects under construction progressed smoothly. The Luanxia New Mine, the Gangbov Msesa, Samba Copper Mine, and the Kambisi Southeast Ore Project were put into operation in batches of 2027-2030; the issuance of 300 million US dollars of convertible bonds was completed on September 2, and the capital was invested in the Luanxia Shaft Production Expansion Project to guarantee the implementation of production expansion capital.
The company plans to pay a dividend of HK$0.087,154 per share, which will be paid on September 17, 2026. It will adhere to a high-ratio dividend policy to give back to all shareholders to boost their confidence.