Since the second half of the year, the natural rubber market has continued its strong pattern. At the beginning of September, the domestic natural rubber spot price reached 17,900 yuan/ton, up about 14% from the beginning of the year, and hit a two-year high. As of September 3, Shanghai Jiao's main futures contract once surpassed 18,800 yuan/ton. Against the backdrop of continuing to rise in raw material costs, the downstream tire industry has set off a new wave of price increases, and the performance of related listed companies is divided. This round of rubber price increases were not driven by a single factor. The Association of Natural Rubber Producers predicts that in 2026, global natural rubber production will be about 15.32 million tons, consumption will reach 15.6 million tons, and the supply and demand gap will be about 280,000 tons, which will expand from 2025. In terms of major producing countries, the aging of rubber trees in Thailand, the spread of leaf fall disease in Indonesia, and the decline in production expectations in Vietnam, combined with the El Niño phenomenon, led to droughts in production areas, and the supply-side contraction trend is obvious. At the same time, due to geopolitical influence, the supply of butadiene, a raw material for synthetic rubber, was tight, and the price reached a record high. Downstream companies were forced to switch to natural rubber alternative procurement, further boosting demand for natural rubber. Cost pressure quickly spread downstream of the industrial chain. Since 2026, many tire companies, including Michelin, Bridgestone, Zhongce Rubber, and Sailun Tire, have been intensively issuing price increase notices, generally increasing by 2% to 5%. Foreign brands adjust prices simultaneously with domestic leaders, showing that this round of cost shocks is common in the industry.
Zhitongcaijing · 1d ago
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Since the second half of the year, the natural rubber market has continued its strong pattern. At the beginning of September, the domestic natural rubber spot price reached 17,900 yuan/ton, up about 14% from the beginning of the year, and hit a two-year high. As of September 3, Shanghai Jiao's main futures contract once surpassed 18,800 yuan/ton. Against the backdrop of continuing to rise in raw material costs, the downstream tire industry has set off a new wave of price increases, and the performance of related listed companies is divided. This round of rubber price increases were not driven by a single factor. The Association of Natural Rubber Producers predicts that in 2026, global natural rubber production will be about 15.32 million tons, consumption will reach 15.6 million tons, and the supply and demand gap will be about 280,000 tons, which will expand from 2025. In terms of major producing countries, the aging of rubber trees in Thailand, the spread of leaf fall disease in Indonesia, and the decline in production expectations in Vietnam, combined with the El Niño phenomenon, led to droughts in production areas, and the supply-side contraction trend is obvious. At the same time, due to geopolitical influence, the supply of butadiene, a raw material for synthetic rubber, was tight, and the price reached a record high. Downstream companies were forced to switch to natural rubber alternative procurement, further boosting demand for natural rubber. Cost pressure quickly spread downstream of the industrial chain. Since 2026, many tire companies, including Michelin, Bridgestone, Zhongce Rubber, and Sailun Tire, have been intensively issuing price increase notices, generally increasing by 2% to 5%. Foreign brands adjust prices simultaneously with domestic leaders, showing that this round of cost shocks is common in the industry.
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