According to the Huatai Securities Research Report, the global low interest rate paradigm is being broken. The contraction in savings supply is compounded by the simultaneous increase in leverage by the government and AI, and capital imbalances are driving long-term interest rates to rise and fall easily. On the savings side, China, Japan, and Europe are aging, geopolitics hinder the return of the dollar, high inflation constrains central bank expansion, and risk appetite depresses savings rates, and quadruple changes have caused savings to dry up; on the demand side, America's high interest rates, high deficits, and high leverage have fallen into a cycle of debt expansion. Tech giants have entered the same level as the net issuance of treasury bonds, and the crowding out of US debt by AI financing is beginning to show. In terms of risk, we focus on weak points such as debt ceilings and base difference transactions in early 2027, and financing risks after AI revenue slows down. Asset performance is divided under high interest rates. Gold and technology stocks form a core dumbbell combination, betting on financial risk exposure and AI narrative fulfillment, respectively, and providing defense with low leverage, strong cash flow and resource products. In terms of strategy, the short-term main line is unclear. It is recommended to seek structural opportunities along the lines of high boom+low congestion+marginal policy catalysis.

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