The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that short-term market shocks have not changed the industry valuation repair logic. Long-term trends such as falling debt costs and steady growth in investment income continue, and valuations are expected to continue to recover. The interim results were better than expected, and the valuation may continue to be repaired under the 4Q26 low base forecast. The recent interim results of insurers have been better than expected, driving a steady recovery in valuations; in the short term, the 3Q base is under strong pressure on both negative sides, but expectations are sufficient. At the same time, the 4Q26 base is declining, capital is expected to return under market style adjustments, and the market is gradually recovering steadily from the bottom. In the long run, insurers' debt side continues to rise steadily, and the asset side gradually optimizes internal structures and actively grasps market investment opportunities. It is expected that they will jointly promote steady growth in indicators such as profit and NBV, and boost the valuation center.
Fangzheng Securities's main views are as follows:
Performance Overview: Net profit accelerated month-on-month, and active equity positions fell to a low point
The profit growth rate of listed insurers was divided but accelerated month-on-month. Growth rate ranking: China Life Insurance (+229%) > Zhongan (+132%) > Taiping (+90.3%) > Xinhua (+54%) > Human Insurance (+38.5%) = Sunshine (+38.5%) > Ping An (+36.1%) > Financial Insurance (+32.1%) > Taibao (+10.4%). Profit differentiation is expected due to differences in investment structure and base. The main reason for the overall recovery is the equity market.
Affected by the decline in valuations, the share of 2Q26 Insurance A/H active equity positions all declined. The 2Q26 fund heavy insurance sector accounted for 0.58% /qoq-0.73pct; previously, judging from the top ten shareholders, 2Q26 Securities Company's related holdings were also reduced.
The growth rate of life insurance NBV is steady, and growth is expected to continue in 26 years
NBV continues to grow steadily. China Life Insurance (+33.7%) > Sunshine (+16.4%) > Taibao (+12.7%) > Xinhua (+11.9%) > Ping An (+11.2%) > Life Insurance + Health (+3.5%). The NBV growth rate declined somewhat in 2Q26 due to a decline in the growth rate of new premiums and a moderate pace of insurance policy sales; however, 1H26 NBV continued to grow on a high base thanks to strong demand for savings and improved product competitiveness.
Term premiums continued to grow, and the quality of debt gradually improved. Thanks to the continued competitiveness of insurance products, strong demand for residents' savings, and the gradual optimization of business structures by insurers, etc., futures premiums generally increased; at the same time, the integration of industry reporting and banking, and the continuous reduction of scheduled interest rates this year, etc., NBV's sensitivity to investment continued to decline, and the quality of the debt side improved.
The growth rate of financial insurance premiums is diverging, and COR is improving
The rate of premium growth is fragmented. The growth rate of total premiums is differentiated: Ping An Financial Insurance (+4.0%) > Taibao Financial Insurance (+1.4%) > Human Insurance (+1.3%). The growth rate is expected to be slightly differentiated due to base and risk business adjustments.
COR has all improved: China Financial Insurance (94.0%) <Taibao (95.0%) <Ping An (95.1%) <Zhongan (95.5%), continued improvement under a high base, mainly due to low disaster risk and integrated reporting of all products.
Total return on investment is picking up, and demand for equity allocation continues
Total return on investment has generally increased: People's Insurance (7.4%) > Xinhua (6.7%) > China Life Insurance (5.6%) > Taiping (5.2%) > Taibao (4.8%) > Sunshine (3.6%), which is expected to recover due to the equity market; however, the return on net investment is still under pressure due to declining interest rates.
Demand for equity allocation continues, and internal structure optimization: the equity allocation of 1H26 listed insurers is gradually increasing, and the share base share of investment assets is generally increasing; it is expected that, on the one hand, insurers will actively seize structural opportunities due to rising equity such as technology; on the other hand, some insurers have a relatively low share of OCI, increasing their efforts to allocate high dividends, smoothing and boosting the level of net investment returns.
Risk warning: The stock market fluctuated sharply, and performance fluctuations increased; interest rates declined sharply and pressure on asset allocation increased; dividend insurance sales fell short of expectations and dragged down premium growth; the risk of major disasters intensified, dragging down financial insurance performance.