Blackstone (BX) is back in focus after two capital moves. The firm is joining lenders on a more than US$3b debt package for Waymo and is preparing a stock market listing of Hotel Investment Partners in Spain.
Blackstone's recent share price has been choppy, with the stock down 4.15% on a 7 day share price return but still showing a 19.36% gain over 90 days, while the 1 year total shareholder return declined 15.68% yet remains positive at 38.45% over three years.
Scan how Blackstone's latest moves in tech financing and real estate compare with other potential opportunities across 21 high quality undiscovered gems.
These moves put Blackstone at an interesting crossroads. Are you seeing a business steadily recycling capital between tech credit and real estate exits, or a stock where sentiment has run ahead or fallen behind the underlying machine?
Most Popular Narrative: 4% Undervalued
On the most followed narrative, Blackstone's fair value sits at $143.45 compared with a last close of $137.68, which puts valuation debate front and centre.
Blackstone has raised $62 billion of inflows in Q1 2025, marking the highest level in three years, which boosts assets under management (AUM) and gives the company a strong foundation for future revenue growth. The firm is well-positioned to benefit from market dislocation with $177 billion of dry powder available for opportunistic investments, potentially increasing future earnings as capital is deployed in undervalued assets.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what sits behind that fair value for Blackstone? The narrative leans heavily on accelerating earnings, fatter margins and a future profit multiple that assumes real staying power.
Result: Fair Value of $143.45 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Blackstone's story could change quickly if tariffs squeeze real estate construction economics, or if market volatility slows realizations and delays putting its dry powder to work.
Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone narrative.
Another View On Blackstone's Valuation
The popular narrative has Blackstone at roughly 4% undervalued using analyst fair value estimates. Our DCF model points in a different direction. On that view, the stock at $137.68 trades above an estimated future cash flow value of $114.14, which screens as overvalued. Which set of assumptions do you find more realistic?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
If this mix of optimism and caution around Blackstone feels familiar, consider acting sooner rather than later so you can weigh the trade off yourself using 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
Looking for more ideas beyond Blackstone?
Do not stop with Blackstone. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to compare fresh stock ideas side by side and evaluate where your capital may work hardest.
- Explore companies that currently appear in the 53 high quality undervalued stocks to find potential value opportunities.
- Focus on stability and risk management by reviewing the companies in the 79 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
- Look for potential emerging opportunities by checking the up and comers featured in the 22 elite penny stocks with strong financials.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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